Afghanistan Conflict Assessment: Prospects for Peace

Based on the multiplicity of possible scenarios, we conclude that the UN Mediation Support Unit should wait to facilitate negotiations and in the meantime work to create the conditions that will make the time ripe for negotiations. In order to create conditions for negotiations, the MSU should within its limited ability: • Persuade the various parties to recognize the Taliban as a legitimate actor in Afghanistan. • Target sanctions against al-Qaeda and remove sanctions from Taliban or Hizb-e Islami leaders to incentivize negotiation. • Address the concerns of regional actors, particularly the security threats that Pakistan perceives from India. Co-written with Taro Yamagata and Thong Nguyen, May 2011