DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS

DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

End-term literature review paper on

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1. Understanding the concepts relating to ‘demographic dividend’ and ‘urbanization’, and their respective implications in shaping the economic and administrative outlook of the third world countries.

2. Revisiting the concept of ‘urban rural differential’ and ‘demography’ | a case of its influence on the Asian cities.

3. Critical analysis of the relevance of population theories in demographic studies and discussion on the respective utilities of these theories in the urban & regional planning context.

Submitted to:

Prof. Vishal Dubey & Asso. Lecturer Gurpreet S. Sandhu

DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS (Elective)

Dealt By:

Prafull Sharma, M.URP, , Ist year ( PP0007514 ) Monsoon Semester, Session (2014-15)

CEPT UNIVERSITY | AHMEDABAD

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DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

MATRIX OF CONTENTS

Section 1…………………………………………………...………………………………….3-10 Section 2…………………………………………………...………………………………...11-14 Section 3…………………………………………………...……………………………… 15-17 Reference & Bibliography……………………………………………………………………....18

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DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

SECTION I

“Understanding the concepts relating to ‘demographic dividend’ & ‘urbanization’, and their respective implications in shaping the economic and administrative outlook of the third world countries”



Abstract



Introduction



Discussion

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Conclusion

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DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

ABSTRACT The enumeration of population, as we acknowledge in in the Indian Administrative context as ‘Census’, provides a vivid bandwidth of an in-depth information about certain various aspects of what, in layman terms be addressed as just a myriad of numerical values. Census data, is of vital importance, which projects and portrays a systematically bifurcated & segregated outlook of the population, that too at varied levels of administration (national, regional, state, urban, rural, district, subdistrict, and villages), into genres which are of individually critical importance in specific disciplines. “Growth is nature’s Constant, and the only constant of life, is ‘Change’.”- Anonymous Further, it is quite profoundly established globally, that population changes (growth or decline), have serious and quite intense influence on the economic dynamism of a country, region or city. It is often debated that population growth, a naturally occurring phenomenon, either contributes, hampers or simply remains a neutral factor in the Economic Growth of a nation. Moreover, what has remained unperturbed for long in the discussions & debates related to factors which shape the economy of any context, is the age-sex differential structure (i.e. the age-wise bifurcation of population). As it is immensely advocated in the economic stratum, strength of the workforce, is one of the major drivers of any economy and it is the variety in the workforce participation, which invites the attention of the global capitalist market. With the advent of globalization, it is the availability of the ‘youth bulge’ in the employment and the labor market which is highly competed for amongst the developed economies to orient their capital investments. It shall be explored and established that what are the major reasons as to why the third world countries like India, Brazil, Mexico, Taiwan & Vietnam are being targeted for global investments and whether this age structure of the population has any role in catalyzing the same? Furthermore, recent trends of briskly booming urbanization, also have shown certain deviations in terms of the factors triggering and influencing the immigration and emigration patterns. It is observed in the modern economic context that urbanization is reaching a saturation amongst the developed nations and metropolitans in developing economies are witnessing a slower urban growth differential against the urban agglomerations, which once developed due to vicinity to these metropolitans. These trends also embellish & establish the justification of neo-modern urbanization parameters which govern the orientation and the fate of the overall urban economy. It would be interesting to relate and exemplify if these shifts in the urban economic and political scenario, can even slightly be attributed to the Demographic Dividend and what projections and anticipations could be made for the urbanizing trends of the third world developing economies.

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DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

Eventually, it would also be highlighted, as to what are the changes which can be anticipated in terms of the global economic scenario, if this hypothesis be established, that the developing third world economies may take over from their metropolitan counterparts in the developed countries, in terms of foreign direct investments and economic burst.

INTRODUCTION To define, Demographic Dividend may be defined as “a period – usually 20 to 30 years – when fertility rates fall due to significant reductions in child and infant mortality rates”. Source: Wikipedia But in extension to the definition stated above, there is a much larger picture for looking at the justification and the implications of studying and analyzing the Demographic Dividend (DD). The most significant implications of the DD are observed in the East Asian, Latin American, Sub-Saharan African, the Middle Eastern and North African countries (third world economies), where there has been observed a prolonged population burst and where that has been a recent shift in the economic outlook in terms of development and global investment. The specific case of Japan, Hong Kong, Shanghai and India in the eastern-south eastern co-ordain of Asia, has been a quite significant one where the implications of the DD on account of the prolonged population burst have a slight cumbersome impact on the national as well as international economic picture. Other countries like the Latin American Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Chile; the Sub-Saharan continental plate (Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Zimbabwe, Sudan, South-Africa) have a completely different implication of the DD. The case of Northern European countries like Sweden, Switzerland, Germany and parts of Britain and France also have in influence of the DD. But before going on any further into unveiling the Demographic Dividend implications, we must first acquire the understanding about the various factors and components which modulate the Demographic Dividend. First in the chronology, comes the Demographic Transition Model which decides the status of any country as to which phase of population growth pattern do they fall in to? We shall, in sections to follow, deal with the Demographic transitional model in detail and also understand as to how and upon what parameters, should we bifurcate the countries in the various phases of the model. Next, we see that DD is majorly influenced by the existing and prevalent socio-economic scenario of the country, a social canvas where the off-springs are merely seen as an opportunity to add to the earning hand to the family without really understanding the scarcity, competition and possible threats that the added population might create for the already limited resources, aiming just at the sustainable surplus, shall portray a completely different economic scenario from the countries which foresee the threats as an acute competition to the steep that might require to curb the requirements of the future with the overall but ensured economic growth with not just the sustainable surplus for the whole population but it with an overall economic advancement with ample savings of the state towards technological as well as logistic advancement. Further we see, that the condition of health & human well-being in the regional or national context of the economy also deduces as to what shall be the population growth structure of the particular country be, also it may very finely aid the deduction of the phase in which the country shall be placed in the demographic transition model.

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DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

Finally we see that all these factor when combined into one, forms a set of queries which generate the socioeconomic & a conditional paradigm of the living conditions, lifestyle & most importantly economic growth for a country, and when combined with the statistics of the trends in the economy, one might easily deduce the implication of the demographic dividend, particularly on the economic, political and administrative setup of the considered nation. This, simultaneously would also phase out the country’s status in the demographic transition model. What is more important to be considered, are the positive and the negative impacts of Demographic Dividend. Further, it may also be noticed, that like the Demographic Transition Model, counties may well and finely be divided into the positive and negative implications of the DD. This analysis is largely dependent upon the consideration of the time period that we are looking forward to, while undergoing a process of the comparison between any two or more countries. This shall give an exact picture of the implications of the DD in conjunction with population and the economic growth of these nations.

DISCUSSION Now, we know that implications of Demographic Dividend are largely and variably connected with the Demographic Transition Model, which in turn is dependent upon the rate & trends of Fertility & Mortality. Hence, we first take the task of understanding as to what this Demographic Transition Model actually is? ‘The Demographic Transition (DT) refers to the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates, as a country develops from pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. This is typically demonstrated through a Demographic Transition Model’. Source: Wikipedia The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson (1887–1973). Thompson’s assumption is based upon the transitions & modulations in the rate of birth & deaths in the transitioning societies, i.e., towards industrialization, considering the statistics for over 200 years. Most developed countries are in stage 3 or 4 of the model; the majority of developing countries have reached stage 2 or stage 3 (Refer Fig.1). The major (relative) exceptions are some poor countries, mainly in subSaharan Africa and some Middle Eastern countries, which are poor or affected by government policy or civil strife, notably Pakistan, Palestinian Territories, Yemen and Afghanistan. Source: Wikipedia Stage 1: High Stationery In this stage both the birth rate was even, but to compensate that, death rate was almost equitably high, which meant that this was a case of low population and a steadily constant growth rate, or in other words, there was no substantial growth of population during this period. This period can be attributed to the pre-historic and medieval times of human settlements with low or negligible health facilities and little was known about the cure of acute diseases. Hygiene attributing to this time era, can also be considered to be of lower standards.

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DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

Stage 2: Early Expanding This is a in which all the countries were lying, or are in this stage at present. It is a stage, when better health practice and institutions were built and there started to happen a steep population growth as a there was a steep birth rate and a relatively lower death rate & hence this is a stage where the beginning of industrialization can be attributed to. At present, Latin American Countries, Taiwan and Vietnam are passing through this or the 3 rd Stage depending upon their realization and interpretation of the population boom on the economic scenario.

Source:BBC Network

Stage 3: Late Expanding This is a stage where the slope of population growth is the steepest, and it is here that the growth rate becomes too dominant upon the available resources and opportunities, which are limited, and there grows a completion for the attainment of the same amongst the various sectors of the society. For some, the life still remains sustainable, but for a considerable sector of population in this case, undergo a shortage far too less than what could be addressed as the bare minimum or surplus. This situation is poverty. In this stage, health & hygiene have attained sophisticated level and the need to maintain a high birth rate to compensate the heavy population decline due to birth rate, is realized to be brought down and hence practices such as birth control and family policies are regulated. The average life expectancy in this scenario is much higher (66 years-a world average) and this is the highest point of undergoing development for a country, beyond which they are considered to be developed. India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Canada and some other major cities of China are some examples of the rapidly growing economies which are believed to be in this stage of demographic shift.

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DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

Stage 4: High Stationery At present, this is the stage which is considered to be the utopic stage for many aspirants of the developed economic status. In this stage of demographic transition, population growth is considered to be a major threat to the development of the economy of the nation, on account of the competition it crates on the rapidly depleting resources. Health practices are developed to a maximum. The practice of Birth control which was initiated in the stage three, actually turns its effect down and it is observed that there is an almost evenly controlled birth rate, and the death rate is brought to a minimum. This results in an overall stagnation in the population growth rate, keeping the limited resources sustainable for the generations to succeed. Developed nations like Britain, France, Japan, China, North Korea, Canada etc. are found to be following a similar trend as described above. In these countries, the average life expectancy is believed to be 81 years on an average, which is at least 15 years more than the global average. RELEVANCE OF ‘DTM’ TO THE ‘DD’ After going through the implications of the Demographic Transition Model, we now establish that population differences have always had a long lasting impact on the economic growth of the nation. Now the argument that whether the age structure of the population also has a major and a deep implication on the economic growth and stability or not, shall be revisited. THE SPECIFIC CASE OF INDIA IN COMPARISON TO JAPAN & CHINA;

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ROLE OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND Rapidly Developing Economy vs. Gradually Ageing Modern day Developed Nations; a case of third world

countries turning to be major players in the global economic scenario I.

India, as discussed in the abstract, is considered to be one of the prime attractions in the modern day context for the economic giants to invest their capital. It is one of the most promising economies in the global scenario and has a major role to play in the modern economic complications.

The prime reasons to which this paradigm can be attributed to are: 1. India has one of the largest population; just 2nd behind China. But, since India happens to still be in the 3rd stage of the demographic transition, they, have a higher comparative birth rate in comparisons to Asian giants such as Japan & China, it still has got a substantial number of youth in its workforce participation seeking employment. 2. Secondly, on account of the large population and a jam-packed competition for employment opportunities, the labor and outsourcing opportunity is available quite cheaply in comparison to the American and Japanese counterparts, investors around the globe have shown quite a keen interesting in developing their corporation in or through India, and henceforth India is becoming one of the major sites for the regional headquarters in Asia of giant corporates, both of the PUC or Private sector on a global scale. 3. The third reason, which might be added in context of the success of India in enticing the investors, is that India has got a ‘youthful pool of skilled’ professional and laborers who are available at cheaper costs in comparison to the rest of the Asian countries, and moreover, India has probably got almost the most relaxed international Trade tariffs which accounts for an another major factor in India’s growth.

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DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

But, most importantly, India has got a majority fraction of its workforce as well as total population in the age group of ‘15-45’years which is way more than Japan and China at present, and hence it could be established that the ‘Demographic Dividend, in context of the two compared entities, plays a positive role in adding to the economic growth of India in the current scenario, with it being in the 3rd stage of DTM’. Having said that, it shall in no way be propagated that incessant & uncontrolled population growth in India is the reason behind its economic boom. II.

Japan and China, being much more developed economies in comparison to India, on the other hand once had the scenario which India is going through at present, but a completely different picture of the Demographic Dividend in comparison to the former.

Japan in 1950s and China in the 1980s had a similar demographic as well as economic scenario as India in the modern day scenario. They too were passing through major economic transformation with an even acute rate of population growth in comparison to India then, or even now. They underwent certain reforms in terms of their family control policies to sustain the pressure of the growing population and simultaneously underwent certain economic reforms to build upon the economic stratum. At present, Japan of the two, could be classified as to be undergoing through the 4th stage of the demographic transition. Since 1950, though there has been a rapid growth of population, the attribution to the birth rate has become secondary for Japan with the prior most being Migration. Japan & China have both with-held the birth rate with an even restricted death rate owing to their medical advancement and Birth Control Policies. But owing to these policies, both Japan & China are now facing, a much acute dilemma, of being two of the fastest ‘ageing’ countries in the world, and by ‘ageing’ it is meant in terms of the age-structure of the population. Their birth-control policies & a much longer life-expectancy of 81 years, affirms the fact that, a substantial fraction of the existent population in Japan & China are ‘dependent’. This means that the workforce participation in Japan has a comparatively slender bulge for the age group of ’1545’ years in the Age-Sex pyramid, in simpler terms implies that Japan & China both, have a lesser percentage of population contributing to the economic growth of the countries in comparison to India, and hence it may be established that ‘Demographic Dividend, in context of the two compared entities, plays a negative role in contribution to the economic growth of Japan & China in the current scenario, with them being in the 4rd stage of the DTM’. Having said that, it is in no way to be interpreted that Japan & China are undergoing any sort of economic depression, however their rate of growth has substantially been stagnated, therefore, saturated.

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DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

Conclusion: CONSEQUENTIAL SHIFT IN THE TRENDS OF URBANIZATION | A comparative analysis of the two adjoining economies I.         

After the adaption of the New Economic Policy (1985-86) by India & its subsequent policy of Liberalization of the Economy, hence welcoming Globalization, meant that there was going to be a pool of opportunity in the tertiary sectors on account of Foreign investments in the country. Apparently, this caused a massive nation-wide migration towards the limited Urban-Growth centers from the rural and regional background, creating an immediate nation-wide economic unrest. India, lost completely on the agricultural contribution to economy, that too drastically, owing to the mass migration. This sudden migration, caused an acute shortage of housing in the Urban –sector and hence informal settlements started to grow. There was, initially a dense pool of unemployment which could not be sustained and took a while to get going. As the urban-rural differential began to grow, so did the boundaries of the urban sprawl over the rural areas. From an agriculture oriented economy, after 1991, India was seen as a major pool of growth for the tertiary sector. In recent times, the upbringing of the Multi-National Company took over, and service sector became a major contributor to the economy. Hence, the ‘youth bulge’ in the workforce, will certainly in recent times to come, shall be an advantage for the economic growth. II.

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INDIA

JAPAN & CHINA

As discussed earlier, Japan and China, having attained the ‘developed’ status in terms of their Economy, and also to add upon that, they had for long, control over their population growth, had ‘Internal & external Migration’ & ‘Rapid, uncontrolled Urbanization’ as a justified reasons for population growth, causing an uneven population distribution over their continental landmass. This had adverse consequences on the urban-rural economic balance and an overall national economy. Hence, they underwent certain policy modifications & migration related laws which would discourage the agglomeration of skilled professional over certain specific growth centers, and encouraged them to develop the economy of their own region, hence ensuring a homogenous development of both, the urban as well as rural economies. They had already far developed urbanized growth centers, the further densification of which would have led to a situation of an uncontrolled and maybe a crashed economy. Hence they have made the international & domestic immigration laws strict which would discourage the foreign intervention in their economies and would ensure their peoples’ development first. But owing to the implications of the Demographic Dividend, Japan and China are certainly witnessing quite unvisited consequences of controlling population on the economy, it is established that, “Population growth can be metaphoric to be a two-faced sword, which if swashed upfront causes damage, and if be waived backwards, it may cause an even worsened damage”.

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DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

SECTION II

“Revisiting the concept of ‘urban rural differential’ and ‘demography’ | a case of its influence on the Asian cities.”



Introduction

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Discussion

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Conclusion

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DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

INTRODUCTION The Urban-Rural Differential, in context of demographics may be defined as the ‘comparison/ratio between the differences of change in urban population to the differences of change in the rural population’. Again more than the definition, the enumeration & implication Urban-rural differential is of utmost importance and it is a key guiding factor in anticipating the stability of the national economy at a larger scale & the regional economy at the local levels. As it has been discussed and established in the previous section that the Demographic Transition Model has got a great influence upon determining the socio-economic status of any nation, region or territory and vice versa. Similarly, the demographic dividend is also a key driving factor of the economic strata and also, both these factors combined provide a larger futuristic projection about the modifications which might come up in the future of the socio-economic setup. But, considering that even the projection of the trends is dealt with, a professional indulged with the work of land related or economics related policies, would certainly have to consider and analyze the trends generated by observing the urban-rural differential for the economy. The urban-rural differential is a data which provides the necessary information about the migration trends which occur from the rural backgrounds to the urban agglomerations at a regional & towards cities at a macro scale, in terms such as: 1. The prime reasons of migration; poor rural income, lack of opportunity, poor lifestyle, no secured employment, trail of a better lifestyle. 2. The status of the rural economy, its contribution to the region and the national counterpart and the implications which might occur after the mass migration. 3. The consequences on the balance and stability of the larger perspective economic setup and further, the damage caused to the rural economy may also be enumerated. 4. Lastly, urban-rural differential provides a window of thought to plan about the encouragement development of the rural economy and it also helps in enumerating the schemes & policies which might discourage the migration and promote the local rural income. URBAN-RURAL DIFFRENTIAL & DEMOGRAPHICS Demographics, as known to all, is a field of logistics and data interpretation which deals with the enumeration, segregation & analysis of the population & Census related data. The U-R differential is one of the specific fields of the Demographics data which, as discussed earlier, provides the information about the migration trends happening at the Regional or National level. Migration, as stated in earlier sections, is the key indicator of economic transformation which happens at the wider regional & national level. The inferences derived from the urban-rural differential have mostly internal implications in a national economic level, which might or might not have global effects. But, as seen in the examples of urbanization trends in India, Japan & China in the previous section, it were the global influences which led to the policy manipulation for these countries, the effects of which further trickled down to the level of influences in the internal urban-rural stability & equilibrium.

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Case examples of Asian Cities (Same as the example stated in previous section) I. a)           

INDIA Effect of migration in the rural context of India

After the adaption of the New Economic Policy (1985-86) by India & its subsequent policy of Liberalization of the Economy, hence welcoming Globalization, implicated that there was going to be a pool of opportunity in the tertiary sectors on account of Foreign investments in the country. Apparently, this caused a massive nation-wide migration towards the limited Urban-Growth centers from the rural and regional background, creating an immediate nation-wide economic unrest. India, lost substantially on the agricultural contribution to the Gross nation production (GNP) and the Gross National Income (GNI), that too drastically, owing significantly to the mass migration which followed. The migration from rural areas following the above turn of events, caused a peculiar sex-ratio disturbance at the rural level further causing a hemorrhage to the rural economic policies that were formulated at the similar time. Due to the rural economic failure, the per-capita income at the rural level further dropped down from what was already far low in comparison to the national per-capita income. Marginal farmers, in non-cultivating seasons migrated to urban areas, lead a further aggravated life there. Some poor farmers who had small farms of land associated to their name, mortgaged it to gather some capital to initiate life in urban areas, often failed at the attempt, and forced to work as marginal workers or lead the life of an urban poor. The decline in the rural economy meant, that farmers could not pay the loans taken against their lands & would have to forfeit the same. The economic depression in addition to crop failure & climatic imbalance caused further aggravated situation of the farmers & this factor can be attributed as one of the major reasons behind farmer-suicide. Rural education policy and farmer empowerment schemes received a severe setback, as rural people had more interest in leading an urban life, and hence did not heed to education. This resulted in a finely skilled farmer turning into an unskilled urban laborer, further adding to the grievances of the city and urban level problems.

 b) Effect of migration in the urban context of India       

The sudden migration, caused an acute shortage of housing in the Urban –sector and hence informal settlements started to grow. The rushing inflow of unskilled laborers turned farmers, caused an intense pressure on the already ailing infrastructure of the urban centers. Then formed a dense pool of unemployed and unskilled laborers which could not be sustained and took a while to get going. As the urban-rural differential began to grow, so did the boundaries of the urban sprawl over the rural areas causing conversion of cultivable agricultural fields into industries &real-estate. From an agriculture oriented economy, after 1991, India was seen as a major pool of growth for the tertiary sector. In recent times, the upbringing of the Multi-National Company took over, and service sector became a major contributor to the economy, sidelining the agricultural factor. Hence, there was felt the formation of a ‘youth bulge’ in the workforce, which certainly could not be accounted for in the workforce really, on account of the poor skills of the farmer turned laborers.

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DEMOGRAPHY & DATA SYSTEMS Prafull Sharma | PP0007514

II. 

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JAPAN & CHINA

As discussed earlier, Japan and China, having attained the ‘developed’ status in terms of their Economy, and also to add upon that, they had for long, control over their population growth, had ‘Internal & external Migration’ & ‘Rapid, uncontrolled Urbanization’ as a justified reasons for population growth, causing an uneven population distribution over their continental landmass. This had adverse consequences on the urban-rural economic balance and an overall national economy. Hence, they underwent certain policy modifications & migration related laws which would discourage the agglomeration of skilled professional over certain specific growth centers, and encouraged them to develop the economy of their own region, hence ensuring a homogenous development of both, the urban as well as rural economies. They had already far developed urbanized growth centers, the further densification of which would have led to a situation of an uncontrolled and maybe a crashed economy. Hence they have made the international & domestic immigration laws strict which would discourage the foreign intervention in their economies and would ensure their peoples’ development first. But owing to the implications of the Urban-Rural differential, Japan and China are certainly witnessing quite unvisited consequences of controlling population on the economy.

CONCLUSION These examples are quite statuary in establishing the conclusion that: 1. Though urban-rural differential is a major parameter which governs the fate of the economic shift of balance, but still, in the Indian Context, it brings quite a negative outcome, in regard of the current rural economic picture. 2. Urban-Rural Differential results for the other developed economies of Japan & China , indicated certain similar trends of rural degradation & un-regulated urbanization, but the policies, regulations & laws which were regulated, introduced of modified to curb this mismanagement of urban-rural economic misbalances, are to be learnt from in the Indian sub-context. At the outset, it may be commented that, “The ridge between the levels of the rural & the urban economies halts the internal grown itself, let alone the development on a global picture”.

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