Demography in Bangladesh: Regional Issues

June 30, 2017 | Autor: Mustafa Murshed | Categoria: Development Studies
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Expert’s Insight Demography in Bangladesh: Regional Issues Introduction In recent years there has been a surge of interest in the geographical and demographic aspects of development — that is, in the question of where and by whom economic activities take place. It is not unusual regarding such interest rather is has significant empirical evidences. It has become a topic of the main stream Economics. After all, even a casual look at the map suggests that differences in economic development are at the very least associated with location. The most striking fact about the economic geography of the world is the uneven distribution of activity. High-income regions are almost entirely concentrated in a few temperate zones where 50% of world GDP is produced by 15% of the world’s population and 54% by countries occupying just 10% of the world’s land area. The poorest half of the world population produces 14% of world GDP and 17 of the poorest 20 nations are in tropical Africa. The unevenness is also manifest within countries, with metropolitan concentrations of activity. The share of the population of developing countries in urban areas has increased dramatically in recent years; Latin American countries (as European and North American ones) are 75% urbanized, and while Asian countries are under 30% urbanized their urban populations are growing at around 4% per annum.

MUSTAFA MURSHED Deputy Director BCS Administration Academy, Dhaka

It has become a topic of the main stream Economics. After all, even a casual look at the map suggests that differences in economic development are at the very least associated with location.

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It has brought enormous number of attention from the researchers’ point of view that why there exists such geographical inconsistencies. Why do these spatial inequalities prevail, and why are spatial differences in land rents and wages not bid away by firms and individuals in search of low cost or high income locations? The answers to this question have to do partly with spatial variations in institutions and endowments (natural endowments and accumulated human and physical capital), and partly also to do with geography – the spatial relationship between economic units. One of the regional inequalities is characterised by the ‘demography’ of a country. Ideally population trend is perhaps the most significant variable to describe the socioeconomic status of a country. Population trends in Bangladesh, which can be traced from the beginning of this century due to the availability of population censuses conducted by the British ruler, show that at present Bangladesh is well into the third phase of demographic transition, having shifted from a high mortality-high fertility regime to a low mortality-low fertility one. The transition in Bangladesh is quite unique because it departs from the classic pattern predicted by the theory in a number of important ways. First, significant change in demographic behaviour took place almost in the absence of concurrent improvement in income levels and standards of living. Second, the movement through the entire trajectory of the three phases was much more rapid than observed historically. The uniqueness of the demographic transition in Bangladesh is

EXPERT’S INSIGHT

difference is not truly characterised by the existing administrative divisions but the quantitative data in such practice is not available. For example, Dhaka division includes greater Mymensingh which is obviously different in all aspects form Dhaka. The divisional issues related to demography are my concern. This paper makes an attempt to explore some intrinsic observations for designing successful policy framework. In this study I purposefully depend on the statistics available from BBS.

evident from the fact that while low income country populations worldwide grew at the average annual (exponential) rate of 2.1 per cent between 1990 and 1997, the population of Bangladesh grew at the rate of below 2 per cent. The purpose of the study is to first discuss the population trends in Bangladesh considering its size and annual growth rate. But the main focus is the regional demography. Bangladesh is divided into seven major administrative divisions. Though the regional

Population Trend in Bangladesh One of the greatest successes of government in recent times is the reduction of population growth rate. There is a sharp diminishing trend of population growth rate which is no doubt a remarkable success of the government. Table 1: Population trend of Bangladesh, 1981 - 2011 (Population in thousands) Indicators Population size 

1974

1981

1991

2001

2011

71,479

87,120

106,315

124,355

142,319

-

15,641

19,195

18,040

17,964

Population change Population increase (%)

-

21.9

22.0

17.0

14.4

Average annual increase 

-

1,931

1,920

1,804

1,772

Average annual growth rate (%)

-

2.32

2.01

1.58

1.34

 Enumerated population  Intercensal period 2001-2011 is 10 years and 51 days Annual growth rate in 2011 is 1.34% form an annual increase of 2% just two decades back. The trend is also satisfactory considering the population growth rate in five years interval. The growth rate in recent time (2005-2010) is even lower than the previous same interval periods (Table 2). Table 2: Change in the number and growth of population

Indicators

1995-1990

2000-1995

2005-2000 2010-2005

Population change per year ‘000

2491

2536

2471

2261

Population growth rate (%)

2.05

1.89

1.68

1.42

Source: United Nations, 2010

Demography by Divisions Table 3 illustrates the number of population in three different population censuses by splitting the population into administrative divisions. The highest number of people lives in Dhaka division with a continuous increase over the last couple of decades. This does not indicate a high population growth rate rather there may be other factors like internal migration is responsible for this. The reverse picture is true for Barishal Division where a downward trend in the number of population is visible. The other divisions are maintaining a similar position which does not create any indication for being anxious. Table 3: Enumerated population by division, 1991 – 2011 Division

1991 (11th of March)

2001 (22nd of January)

2011 (15th of March)

Number

% of Total

Number

% of Total

Number

% of Total

National

106,314,992

100

124355263

100

144,043,697

100

Barisal

7,462,643

7.02

8173718

6.6

8,325,666

5.8

Chittagong

20,522,908

19.3

24290384

19.5

28,423,019

20

Dhaka

32,665,975

30.7

39044716

31.4

47,424,418

33

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EXPERT’S INSIGHT

Division

1991 (11th of March)

2001 (22nd of January)

2011 (15th of March)

Number

% of Total

Number

% of Total

Number

% of Total

Khulna

12,688,383

11.9

14705229

11.8

15,687,759

11

Rajshahi

14,212,065

13.4

16354723

13.2

18,484,858

13

Rangpur

11,997,979

11.3

13,847,150

11.1

15,787,758

11

Sylhet

6,765,039

6.36

7939343

6.4

9,910,219

6.9

The male-female ratio is almost same in all divisions without any major anomaly (Table 4). As expected more than 80% of the total people lived in rural areas which refers a typical picture of rural Bangladesh. Therefore the development plan of our country should emphasis on the ultimate development of rural people. The percentage of population in rural areas ranked the highest in Barishal because of its geographical location. The backwardness in the communication setup makes it remote compare to other divisions. The proportion of urban area is lower with respect to rural area in this division. On the other hand, in Dhaka division the lowest number of people lived in rural areas. This is nothing strange rather the dominant Dhaka city offset all numeric values of population. An about 1 crore people lived in Dhaka Metropolitan City. The gigantic city grasps the attention of the people throughout the country. Mind it; Dhaka City does not represent Bangladesh though it determines the decisions of our country. The index used for measuring the sex composition is the ‘sex ratio’, defined as the number of males per 100 females in the population. A sex ratio higher than 100 denotes a higher number of males, while less than 100 means that females are more numerous. The sex ratio should naturally be close to 100 but may be affected by mortality rate, wars or sex-biased migration. Table 4: Enumerated population by sex and Location by division, 2011 Division

Males

Females

Rural

Urban

National

50.1

49.9

80.8

19.2

Barisal

49.2

50.8

87.5

12.5

Chittagong

49

51

79.6

20.4

Dhaka

51

49

73.9

26.1

Khulna

50

50

84.2

15.8

Rajshahi

50.1

49.9

84

16

50

50

88

12

49.8

50.2

88

12

Rangpur Sylhet

It has been found that in 2011 the number of male population in Dhaka and Rajshahi is higher than other divisions compare to female. There exists a declining trend of the sex ratio which indicates lower male population over the time. This finding ensures a higher longevity of female population compare to male (Table 5). Average longevity of male is thus going downward and male people are sacrificing their wealth by quitting a bit earlier than female!! The trend is perhaps natural because nature will adjust when necessary.

Table 5: Enumerated population by sex ratio by division, 1991 – 2011 Division

1991

2001

2011

National

106.1

106.4

100.3

Barisal

103.5

103.6

96.8

Chittagong

105.6

104.4

96.1

Dhaka

108.3

109.0

103.9

Khulna

106.2

106.6

100.0

Rajshahi

105.1

106.3

100.4

Rangpur

104.8

104.8

99.8

Sylhet

104.2

104.9

99.1

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Population density is higher in Dhaka and Rajshahi compare to other divisions (Table 6). In case of Dhaka division the capital Dhaka plays a vital role by generating employment opportunities. These employment opportunities are not well structured but people expect that Dhaka is the biggest platform for getting jobs. There prevails a ‘higher expected income’ in contrast with other regions by the people outside Dhaka. More interestingly, once someone enters into Dhaka s/he is quite uninterested to leave this glorious city of charm. Thus the potential gap between the entry and exit is increasing over the years. Higher population density in Dhaka and Rajshahi division does not refer higher population growth rate (Table 7). It is obvious for Dhaka division because as a part of the division the population growth rate in Dhaka Metropolitan area is increasing due to

EXPERT’S INSIGHT

some other factors like, natural disaster, river erosion, seeking employment opportunities, dominance of central administration, for better medical and education facilities and so on. The case of Rajshahi is quite interesting. Some studies found that Rajshahi city is also a lucrative place for that particular locality due to some Natural Factors (Manga, Flood and River bank erosion, Storm), Economic Factors (Poverty, Unemployment), Social Factors (Population explosion, Marriage, Social inequality, Religious violence) and Political Factors (Crossing boarder, Involvement of politics). These indicators are true for internal migration in other parts of Bangladesh. Table 6: Population Density by division, 2011 Division

Population Density

National

976

Barisal

626

Chittagong

841

Dhaka

1,523

Khulna

704

Rajshahi

1,015

Rangpur

960

Sylhet

780

is no definite variable to answer why it does happen for Sylhet. Let us consider the explanatory variables related to population growth rate. Table 8: Area, No. & Size of Households (HHs) by division, 2001 Area (sq. km.)

No of HHs

Size of HHs

Total (National)

147,569.06

25490822

4.9

Dhaka

31,177.74

8236030

4.7

Chittagong

33,908.55

4472302

5.4

Khulna

22,284.22

3119482

4.7

Rajshahi

18,153.08

6627149

4.5

Barisal

13,225.20

1647700

5.0

Sylhet

12,635.22

1388159

5.7

Rangpur

16,184.99

-

-

1.6

2.1

Division

Sylhet

For that time Rangpur was not a division. It is incorporated in the (Former) Rajshahi Division.

Population Growth by Division: Some Observations Population is a debatable issue over the years. Some argued that population is a hindrance where someone believes it is a prerequisite for development. Population growth depends on a variety of variables, like income, mortality rate, awareness of people, net wealth, literacy rate, religious belief, domestic and international migration etc. In this study I intentionally ruled out the impact of migration for sake of simplicity of the analysis. Table 7: Enumerated population growth rate by division, 1991 – 2011 (%) Division

1991-2001

2001-2011

National

1.58

1.34

Barisal

0.9

0.0

Chittagong

1.7

1.4

Dhaka

1.8

1.8

Khulna

1.5

0.6

Rajshahi

1.4

1.1

Rangpur

1.4

1.2

Sylhet

1.6

2.1

Table 7 depicts that population growth rate is highest in Sylhet division overtaking Chittagong in the last decade. It is quite interesting to analyse the regional demography. In connection with population growth rate it has been found that average size of households is also higher in Sylhet division equal to 5.7 which is significantly higher from the national average (Table 8). There

Income is a crucial variable for population because some argued that children are treated as ‘normal goods’ and there exists a positive correlation between income and number of children in a household. Furthermore, a region with higher per capita income means better health care facilities and lower infant/child and maternal mortality rate. There are also reverse argument. Some economists believe that as long as income is higher people is well aware of population control and family planning. So they will love to restrict their number of children for better take care of them. In addition, they claimed that in case of lower-income people they consider their children as their earning source and the opportunity cost of children is lower for them. The debate about the correlation between income and number of children in a family is thus open ended. There is no decisive conclusion in general rather in this study we have found that higher income area prefers higher size of households. Such behaviour is also true for Chittagong where the nominal income is higher and hence, the population growth rate is also higher than the average. Though Dhaka division has a higher nominal income but it may be the result of extreme inequality in the distribution of resources (higher rich-poor gap). As we know Sylhet and Chittagong divisions are endowed with some of the greatest Saints of Islam and their religious beliefs, to a great extent, dominates their social and cultural life. In addition, Sylhet is the ‘religious capital’ of Bangladesh and also named as ‘holy city’. The historical influence of religious belief could play an important role in family planning decision. The religious belief is terms of population control may be one of the crucial factors for lower protection in the reproduction system. Dhaka division secured the second position in terms of population growth rate. There may be more migrated people compare to others. The status of migration is not considered here. In the next issue of Market Pulse I would love to address this topic.

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CONTINUATION TEXT

The overall difference in the nominal income and consumption expenditure is positive which ensures savings in the economy. This is absolutely fine that the nation has some savings but the negative behaviour in savings experienced in Barishal, Chittagong and Sylhet have some significant implications. One of the inferences is that the income statement may not true because of the failure of data collection process. People love to deny their true income due to the fear of income taxes. Secondly, there may be some undue remittances in those economies which are not transmitted through proper channels. Even there may be some unusual income of the people of such areas which is not calculated in the market mechanism. The additional expenditure of the people of Barishal, Chittagong and Sylhet is financed by either external or domestic sources which are not recognised here.

Table 9: Monthly Household Nominal Incomes and Consumption Expenditures by Divisions-2010 (Taka) Consumption Division Income Col 3 – Col 4 Expenditure 1 2 3 4 Total (National) 11479 11003 + Barishal 9158 9826 Chittagong 14092 14360 Dhaka 13226 11643 + Khulna 9569 9304 + Rajshahi 9342 9254 + Rangpur 8359 8298 + Sylhet 11629 12003 -

Incidence of Poverty by Division Head count Index is not a perfect indicator to illustrate the true picture of poverty because it does not take the degree of poverty into account. For such ground the paper considers both the upper and lower poverty line to articulate a satisfactory picture of poverty. There is a sharp declining trend of poverty in national as well as regional levels. The reducing trend of poverty is another notable success of Bangladesh compare to other contemporary countries. The government along with private sector plays vital role regarding poverty reduction. Table-10(a): Incidence of Poverty (Head Count Rate) by Cost of Basic Needs Method by Divisions Using Lower Poverty Line# 2005

2010

National

Rural

Urban

Total (National)

25.1

28.6

14.6

Barishal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet

35.6 16.1 19.9 31.6 20.8

37.2 18.7 26.1 32.7 22.3

26.4 8.1 9.6 27.8 11.0

National

Rural

Urban

17.6 (-29.8) 26.7 13.1 15.6 15.4 16.8 30.1 20.7

21.1 (-26.2) 27.3 16.2 23.5 15.2 17.7 30.8 23.5

7.7 (-47.2) 24.2 4.0 3.8 16.4 13.2 24.0 5.5

Table-10(b): Incidence of Poverty (Head Count Rate) by Cost of Basic Needs Method by Divisions Using Upper Poverty Line# 2005

Total (National)

2010

National

Rural

Urban

National

Rural

Urban

40.0

43.8

28.4

31.5 (-21.25)

35.2 (-19.6)

21.3 (-25)

39.2 31.0 38.8 31.0 30.0 37.0 30.5

39.9 11.8 18.0 35.8 29.0 47.2 15.0

Barishal 52.0 54.1 40.4 39.4 Chittagong 34.0 36.0 27.8 26.2 Dhaka 32.0 39.0 20.2 30.5 Khulna 45.7 46.5 43.2 32.1 Rajshahi 29.8 Rangpur 46.2 Sylhet 33.8 36.1 18.6 28.1 #The parenthesis shows the percentage change of Head Count Rate form year 2005 to 2010

The lower the Head Count Rate the higher the size of the households. The Sylhet and Chittagong confirm this hypothesis. The findings are as follows:

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CONTINUATION TEXT

a)

In case of rural areas Barishal is well ahead in reducing Head Count Rate.

b)

In case of urban areas Chittagong, Dhaka and Sylhet show their competencies.

c)

In the overall observation Khulna division is doing better compare to others.

d)

In rural-urban comparison, the Head Count Rate of poverty in urban areas is reducing faster than rural areas. The employment generation in urban areas could be responsible for this.

Literacy Rate by Division There is no noteworthy difference in the literacy rate in different divisions where the literacy rate is higher in Chittagong among others. Urban literacy rate is higher as usual. The population growth rate is indifferent of literacy rate. The ambiguous definition of literacy may be answerable for this. Table 11: Literacy Rate (7 years and over) by division, 2010 Percent of Literate (7 Years and Over) Total (National) Barishal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur Sylhet

National

Rural

Urban

57.91 57.90 60.54 57.73 59.28 57.37 54.68 55.22

53.37 55.23 55.14 49.00 57.68 55.50 52.66 52.46

70.38 70.92 76.08 70.65 64.73 65.81 67.40 69.54

Division Sylhet

Table 12: Distribution of Households Receiving Social Safety Net Programmes Benefits by Division, 2010 (% of Household Receiving Benefit) Division National Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rangpur

National 24.57 34.43 19.99 18.87 37.30 20.66 33.65

Rural 30.12 37.20 24.50 27.80 43.27 22.85 35.11

Urban 9.42 20.66 7.44 5.99 16.66 10.17 23.68

Rural 26.06

Urban 10.50

The numbers of beneficiaries through the social safety net programmes provided by the government are at the highest form in Khulna Division may be the important factor for the failing trend of poverty. The outcome of the privileged Khulna division provides a policy guideline for the government for offering more safety net programmes for improving the poverty situation. The proportion of population residing in rural Khulna Division is also getting the highest percentage of benefits contrast with the others.

Specific Observations and Findings a)

b) c)

Social Safety Net Programmes by Division Despite the resources constraints government of Bangladesh is putting emphasis on the Social Safety Net Programmes paying particular attention on the rural areas. The less employment opportunities in rural areas allow the government to design such plan. The higher the employment opportunities the lower the benefit programmes. People living in Dhaka division receive the lowest assistance form public money while Khulna is getting the highest. The finding has a strong positive correlation with the reducing trend of poverty (Head Count Rate). Table 10 illustrates poverty reduction status in Khulna division is much better compare to others.

National 23.51

d)

e)

f)

The overall population control at national level along with the poverty trend is satisfactory. People mostly lived in rural areas so rural areas should get the top priority in strategic decisions and planning. Highest number of people lives in Dhaka division with the highest population density. Male population is falling down over the years which may ensures a higher longevity of female population compare to male. Chittagong and Sylhet have higher population growth rate may be due to higher nominal income. Thus there exists a positive correlation between income and number of children in households’ decision making process. Barishal division has lowest population growth rate and people of that region mostly live in rural areas. The lower population growth may be characterised by a higher child and maternal mortality rate. In reducing the Head Count Rate, Khulna division is doing comparatively better. There prevails a strong positive correlation between social safety net programmes and reduction of Head Count Rate in this division.

Concluding Remarks This paper critically examines the geography and some socioeconomic variables to understand the development status of the major regions of Bangladesh. It has been widely acknowledged that regional variables are extensively important for designing development policy. One of the limitations of this paper is that there is less availability of definite data to establish the definite result. To serve this purpose the quality demographic data is thus required. The findings of this paper are thus an indication for better planning and implementation of government policies.

Disclaimer: The author is Deputy Director at Bangladesh Civil Service Administration Academy. The opinions expressed in this article are solely of his own which neither represent the views of his associated institutions nor the views of LankaBangla Securities Limited & its affiliated organizations.

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