PADRÃO DE INTENSIDADE TECNOLÓGICA DA INDÚSTRIA BRASILEIRA E O CRESCIMENTO ECONÔMICO: UMA ANÁLISE ENTRE OS ESTADOS
EDUARDA MACHOSKI AUGUSTA PELINSKI RAIHER
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Resumo
'UVGCTVKIQVGORQTQDLGVKXQCPCNK UCTQRCFTºQFGFKUVTKDWKÁºQGURCEKCN FCU KPFÕUVTKCU RQT KPVGPUKFCFG VGEPQNÎIKEC CQ NQPIQ FQ RCÈU GO versusCPCNKUCPFQUGGZKU VGTGNCÁºQGPVTGGUVCNQECNK\CÁºQGQ crescimento econômico dos Estados DTCUKNGKTQU2CTCKUUQWUCTCOUGVÃE PKECUFGCP¶NKUGTGIKQPCN SWQEKGPVG NQECEKQPCN EQGſEKGPVG NQECEKQPCN G EQGſEKGPVGTGFKUVTKDWKÁºQGGUVKOQW UGWOOQFGNQGEQPQOÃVTKEQWUCPFQ FCFQUGORCKPGN1UTGUWNVCFQUKPFK ECOSWGQUUGVQTGUOCKUKPVGPUKXQU em tecnologias estavam concentra FQUVCPVQGOEQOQGOGO CNIWPURQPVQUFQRCÈUPºQUGVGPFQ CNVGTCÁÐGUUKIPKſECVKXCUPCGUVTWVWTC RTQFWVKXC PQ FGEQTTGT FGUUGU CPQU 'OGURGEÈſEQRQWEQU'UVCFQUGTCO GURGEKCNK\CFQUPQUPÈXGKUOCKUCXCP ÁCFQUFGVGEPQNQIKCCQEQPVT¶TKQFCU KPFÕUVTKCU FG DCKZC VGEPQNQIKC GO SWGSWCUGVQFQUCVKPJCOEQOQFKPC OK\CFQTCFQETGUEKOGPVQGEQPÏOKEQ 2QT HKO KFGPVKHKEQWUG WO GHGKVQ RQUKVKXQGUKIPKſECVKXQFCKPFÕUVTKC UQDTGQETGUEKOGPVQGEQPÏOKEQFQU 'UVCFQU RTKPEKRCNOGPVG SWCPFQ UG tem indústrias mais intensivas em VGEPQNQIKC
Abstract
6JKU CTVKENG CKOU VQ CPCN[\G VJG RCVVGTP QH URCVKCN FKUVTKDWVKQP QH KPFWUVTKGUD[VGEJPQNQI[KPVGPUKV[ CNQPIVJGEQWPVT[KPCPF CPCN[\KPI YJGVJGT C TGNCVKQPUJKR GZKUVU DGVYGGP VJKU NQECVKQP CPF GEQPQOKEITQYVJQH$TC\KNKCPUVCVGU 6JG[ WUGF CPCN[VKECN VGEJPKSWGU VQ TGIKQPCN NQECVKQPSWQVKGPVNQECVKQP EQGHſEKGPVCPFEQGHſEKGPVTGFKUVTKDW VKQPCPFGUVKOCVGFCPGEQPQOGVTKE OQFGNWUKPIRCPGNFCVC6JGTGUWNVU KPFKECVGVJCVVJGUGEVQTUOQUVKPVGP UKXGVGEJPQNQIKGUYGTGEQPEGPVTCVGF KPDQVJCPFKPUQOGRCTVU QH VJG EQWPVT[ CPF VJGTG YCU PQ UKIPKHKECPV EJCPIG KP RTQFWEVKQP UVTWEVWTG FWTKPI VJQUG [GCTU +P RCTVKEWNCT HGY UVCVGU YGTG URGEKCN K\GF KP VJG OQTG CFXCPEGF NGXGNU QH VGEJPQNQI[ WPNKMG VJG NQYVGEJ KPFWUVTKGU YJGTG CNOQUV GXGT[QPG JCFCUHQUVGTUVJGGEQPQOKEITQYVJ (KPCNN[YGKFGPVKſGFCRQUKVKXGCPF UKIPKſECPVGHHGEVQHKPFWUVT[QPVJG GEQPQOKEITQYVJQHUVCVGUGURGEKCNN[ YJGP [QW JCXG OQTG VGEJPQNQI[ KPVGPUKXGKPFWUVTKGU 1
2
Palavras-chave%TGUEKOGPVQ'EQPÏ OKEQKPFÕUVTKCUVGEPQNQIKC
RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONÔMICO
Key-words 'EQPQOKE )TQYVJ KP FWUVTKGUVGEJPQNQI[ JEL: R11
1. Introdução
5GIWPFQ4WHHQPK ÃRQUUÈ XGN CſTOCT SWG GZKUVG WOC TGNCÁºQ RQUKVKXCGPVTGRTQITGUUQVGEPQNÎIKEQ G ETGUEKOGPVQ GEQPÏOKEQ CRGUCT FGUUCGZKUVÄPEKCPGOUGORTGVGTUKFQ EQPUKFGTCFC PQU OQFGNQU VGÎTKEQU UQDTGQETGUEKOGPVQGEQPÏOKEQ5Q OGPVGCRCTVKTFGGUVWFQUPQUCPQU [OCKU GURGEKſECOGPVG EQO Q VTCDCNJQ FG 5QNQY ] à SWG C VGEPQNQIKCRCUUQWCUGTEQPUKFGTCFC GHGVKXCOGPVG EQOQ WOC FCU RTKP cipais variáveis responsáveis pela GZRNKECÁºQFCUVGPFÄPEKCUGRCFTÐGU de crescimento econômico dos países GTGIKÐGU 'UVWFQU CVWCKU EQPHKTOCO VCN TGNCÁºQ RQT OGKQ FC CP¶NKUG FG XC TK¶XGKU SWG TGRTGUGPVCO Q PÈXGN FG FGUGPXQNXKOGPVQ VGEPQNÎIKEQ FQU RCÈUGUGFCUTGIKÐGU*QNNCPFG2QT EKNG RQT GZGORNQ UWIGTGO SWGWOCTGFW\KFCRCTVKEKRCÁºQFQU
Graduanda de Ciências Econômicas da Universidade Estadual de Ponta GrosVD%ROVLVWDGH,QLFLDomR&LHQWtÀFD)XQGDomR$UDXFiULD (PDLO
[email protected]. Doutora em Economia pela Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul. Professora do Departamento de Economia da Universidade Estadual de Ponta Grossa. Email:
[email protected].
Ano XIV Nº 26
Dezembro de 2012
Salvador, BA
setores intensivos em tecnologia PC KPFÕUVTKC OCPWHCVWTGKTC NCVKPQ COGTKECPC CNKOGPVC G TGHQTÁC UWC DCKZC ECRCEKFCFG FG CRTGPFK\CFQ VGEPQNÎIKEQGETGUEKOGPVQ 2CTVKPFQFQRTGUUWRQUVQFGGZKU VÄPEKCFGWOCTGNCÁºQGPVTGQETGUEK OGPVQGEQPÏOKEQFGWOCTGIKºQGQ RCFTºQVGEPQNÎIKEQFCUWCKPFÕUVTKC G VGPFQ EQOQ GURCÁQ FG CP¶NKUG QU GUVCFQUFQ$TCUKNSWGUVKQPCUGSWCN QRCFTºQFGFKUVTKDWKÁºQGURCEKCNFCU KPFÕUVTKCURQTKPVGPUKFCFGVGEPQNÎ IKECCQNQPIQFQRCÈUGOversus KPFCICPFQ UG GZKUVG TGNCÁºQ GPVTGGUVCNQECNK\CÁºQGQETGUEKOGPVQ GEQPÏOKEQFQUGUVCFQUDTCUKNGKTQU %QO QU TGUWNVCFQU QDVKFQU OC RGCTUG¶ C FKUVTKDWKÁºQ KPFWUVTKCN GOKPVGPUKFCFGVGEPQNÎIKECCQNQPIQ FQ $TCUKN C SWCN RQFGT¶ UGTXKT FG HGTTCOGPVCU RCTC RQNÈVKECU RÕDNKECU SWG XKUGO OWFCPÁCU PC GUVTWVWTC RTQFWVKXCGPQETGUEKOGPVQFQRCÈU &GUVCECUGRQTſOSWGCCP¶NKUG SWCPVQ CQU RCFTÐGU FG KPVGPUKFCFG VGEPQNÎIKECFCKPFÕUVTKCÃHGKVCGO IGTCNCRGPCUGOPÈXGNFGRCÈUGUGO SWGGOVGTOQUTGIKQPCKU GOPÈXGN FG GUVCFQU RQWEQ à RGUSWKUCFQ Q SWGLWUVKſECTKCCKORQTV¸PEKCFGVCN RGUSWKUC 2CTCKUUQGUVGCTVKIQGUV¶FKXKFKFQ GO EKPEQ UGÁÐGU KPENWKPFQ GUVC 0C UGIWPFCUGÁºQUGHC\WOCDTGXGFKU EWUUºQUQDTGCKPFÕUVTKCUWCKORQT V¸PEKCRCTCQETGUEKOGPVQGEQPÏOKEQ G C TGNGX¸PEKC FC VGEPQNQIKC RCTC C OGUOC0CVGTEGKTCUGÁºQÃCRTGUGP VCFC C OGVQFQNQIKC 0C UGSWÄPEKC VÄOUG QU TGUWNVCFQU G RQT ſO CU EQPUKFGTCÁÐGUſPCKU
2. Crescimento econômico e sua relação com a indústria e com a tecnologia A Indústria # KPFWUVTKCNK\CÁºQ VGO EQOQ RTKPEKRCN KPVGTGUUG C OCZKOK\CÁºQ FGNWETQU'UVCOCZKOK\CÁºQÃCNECP ÁCFC RGNC UWDUVKVWKÁºQ FQ OQFQ FG RTQFWÁºQQWUGLCRGNCOGECPK\CÁºQ FQU RTQEGUUQU FG RTQFWÁºQ 'O VCN UWDUVKVWKÁºQÃRQUUÈXGNCWOGPVCTQ PÈXGNFGRTQFWÁºQEQOWOCTGFWÁºQ
146
PQVGORQGPQFKPJGKTQICUVQ%QO C CLWFC FC VGEPQNQIKC FKURQPÈXGN C KPFWUVTKCNK\CÁºQVQTPCRQUUÈXGNCRTQ FWÁºQGOUÃTKGGGOITCPFGGUECNC 5GIWPFQ 5EJWORGVGT C VGEPQNQIKCSWGCUKPFÕUVTKCUWVKNK\CO RCTCQUGWRTQEGUUQFGRTQFWÁºQETKC WOCFKP¸OKECSWGHC\FCKPQXCÁºQ VGEPQNÎIKEC Q RTKPEKRCN HCVQT FC CVKXKFCFG RTQFWVKXC # GZRNKECÁºQ à SWG FGEQTTGPVG FCU OGNJQTGU VGE PQNQIKCUWVKNK\CFCUPQXCUHQPVGUFG OCVÃTKCURTKOCU UºQ GPEQPVTCFCU PQXQUOQFQUFGRTQFWÁºQCRCTGEGO G EQO GNGU PQXQU RTQFWVQU %QO GUUGURTQFWVQUPQXQUOGTECFQUUºQ CDGTVQU G CU KPFÕUVTKCU VÄO FG UGT CFCRVCT C GUUCU OWFCPÁCU 3WCPVQ OCKQTÃCFKXGTUKFCFGFGRTQFWVQU OCKU CEKTTCFC à C EQORGVKÁºQ FG XGPFCGOCKQTÃCKORQTV¸PEKCFGUG VGTWORTQFWVQFKHGTGPEKCFQGOWO OGTECFQ ' à GUUC KPFÕUVTKC SWG RCTC CN IWPUCWVQTGUÃQNÎEWUFQFKPCOKUOQ GEQPÏOKEQ FG WOC TGIKºQ -CNFQT
EQPſTOC KUUQ CQ CRTGUGPVCT UWCU NGKU SWG CRQPVCO C KPFÕUVTKC como motor do crescimento econô OKEQ5GIWPFQGNGKUUQCEQPVGEGRGNQ HCVQ FQ UGVQT KPFWUVTKCN CRTGUGPVCT TGVQTPQUETGUEGPVGUFGGUECNCQSWG PºQUGXGTKſECPQUFGOCKUUGVQTGU 'O-CNFQTGUVWFQWGEQ nomias capitalistas para entender o motivo de existirem entre elas FKHGTGPVGUVCZCUFGETGUEKOGPVQ1U CTIWOGPVQUGPEQPVTCFQURCTCGUUCU FKHGTGPÁCU UºQ EQPJGEKFQU EQOQ ő.GKU FG %TGUEKOGPVQ FG -CNFQTŒ
6*+49#.. 0C 2TKOGKTC NGK FG -CNFQT GNG CTIWOGPVCCGZKUVÄPEKCFGWOCHQTVG TGNCÁºQGPVTGCVCZCFGETGUEKOGPVQ FC RTQFWÁºQ PC KPFÕUVTKC FG VTCPU HQTOCÁºQ G C VCZC FG ETGUEKOGPVQ FQ2+$0CUGIWPFCNGKFGHGPFGUG WOCHQTVGGRQUKVKXCTGNCÁºQGPVTGC VCZC FG ETGUEKOGPVQ FC RTQFWVKXK FCFGPCKPFÕUVTKCFGVTCPUHQTOCÁºQ G Q ETGUEKOGPVQ FC RTQFWÁºQ PGUUC KPFÕUVTKC 2QT ſO C VGTEGKTC NGK FG -CNFQTFGUVCECSWGSWCPVQOCKQTQ ETGUEKOGPVQFCRTQFWÁºQPCKPFÕU VTKCFGVTCPUHQTOCÁºQOCKQTÃCVCZC
Ano XIV Nº 26 Dezembro de 2012 Salvador, BA
FG VTCPUHGTÄPEKC FG VTCDCNJCFQTGU FQUFGOCKUUGVQTGURCTCQKPFWUVTKCN
6*+4.9#.. #UUKO C RTQFWVKXKFCFGVQVCNÃRQUKVKXCOGPVG relacionada com o crescimento da RTQFWÁºQGFQGORTGIQPCKPFÕUVTKC FG VTCPUHQTOCÁºQ G PGICVKXCOGPVG associada com o crescimento do em RTGIQPQUFGOCKUUGVQTGU 'OGUVWFQUTGCNK\CFQURQT2KGRGT
QUCTIWOGPVQUFG-CNFQTUºQ EQPHKTOCFQU RQKU C TGNCÁºQ GPVTG KPFÕUVTKCUGQFGUGORGPJQFCGEQPQ OKCOQUVTCUGRQUKVKXC1GUVWFQFQ CWVQTCRQPVCSWGRCÈUGUSWGVKXGTCO WOOCKQTETGUEKOGPVQFCKPFÕUVTKC FGVTCPUHQTOCÁºQCRTGUGPVCTCOWO ETGUEKOGPVQOCKQTFCRTQFWVKXKFCFG GO VQFQ Q UGVQT KPFWUVTKCN (GKLÎ %CTXCNJQG4QFTKIWG\ GPEQP VTCTCOTGUWNVCFQUUKOKNCTGUC2KGRGT
CRQPVCPFQRCTCCKORQTV¸PEKC FCKPFÕUVTKCPQRTQEGUUQFGKPQXCÁºQ GEQPUGSWGPVGOGPVGPQCWOGPVQFC RTQFWVKXKFCFG 0GUVG EQPVGZVQ EQPUKFGTCPFQ C KORQTV¸PEKC FC KPFÕUVTKC PQ ETGU EKOGPVQ GEQPÏOKEQ UQD C ÎVKEC FG FKHGTGPVGUCWVQTGUCFKUVTKDWKÁºQKP FWUVTKCNFGWOCTGIKºQRQFGUGTTGU RQPU¶XGNRGNQUFGUPÈXGKUSWCPVQCQ UGWETGUEKOGPVQGEQPÏOKEQKPVGTPQ
A Tecnologia e o Crescimento Econômico
'ZKUVGOFKXGTUCUVGQTKCUSWGXK sam explicar o crescimento econômi EQ#VGQTKCPGQEN¶UUKECCſTOCSWGQ CWOGPVQFCTGNCÁºQECRKVCNVTCDCNJQ FG WOC GEQPQOKC GUV¶ TGNCEKQPCFQ ´U VCZCU GPFÎIGPCU FG ETGUEKOGPVQ FQECRKVCNVTCDCNJQ0GUUGOQFGNQ C GEQPQOKC PCVWTCNOGPVG CVKPIG WO GSWKNÈDTKQ GUV¶XGN Q EJCOCFQ steady-state 5QNQY CſTOCGOUGWOQ FGNQFGETGUEKOGPVQGEQPÏOKEQSWG a única fonte possível de crescimen VQ RCTC WOC GEQPQOKC FGTKXC FQU CXCPÁQUVGEPQNÎIKEQUSWGUWTIGOCQ NQPIQFQVGORQ'UUGOQFGNQÃEQP UKFGTCFQ RQT OWKVQU CWVQTGU EQOQ a primeira tentativa sistemática de explicar o crescimento econômico a NQPIQRTC\Q#NÃOFKUUQQOQFGNQ
RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONÔMICO
FG5QNQY ÃWVKNK\CFQRQTOWK VQU GEQPQOKUVCU EQOQ KPUVTWOGPVQ D¶UKEQ RCTC CP¶NKUG FQU FGVGTOK PCPVGU FQ ETGUEKOGPVQ GEQPÏOKEQ 2QTÃO Q OQFGNQ HCNJC SWCPFQ UG OQUVTCKPECRC\FGGZRNKECTFKHGTGP ÁCUFGETGUEKOGPVQGTGPFCper capita GPVTGGEQPQOKCUFKUVKPVCU5GIWPFQ 1TGKTQ CRGUCT FG Q OQFGNQ FG5QNQYGZRNKECTQETGUEKOGPVQFC renda per capitaPQNQPIQRTC\QPG PJWOCGZRNKECÁºQÃFCFCRGNQCWVQT ´TGURGKVQFQSWGQWSWCKUQUHCVQTGU UºQTGURQPU¶XGKURGNCOGNJQTKCEQP VÈPWC FC VGEPQNQIKC FG RTQFWÁºQ 1WUGLC &GHCVQPQOQFGNQGOEQPUKFGTCÁºQ a tecnologia é considerada como se HQUUG WO DGO RÕDNKEQ HQTPGEKFC RGNQ IQXGTPQ G RGNCU WPKXGTUKFC FGU GUVCPFQ RQTVCPVQ FKURQPÈXGN C VQFQU QU CIGPVGU SWG FGUGLCO WVKNK\¶NC 0GUUG EQPVGZVQ UG RQU VWNCSWGCRTQFWVKXKFCFGVQVCNFQU HCVQTGU FG RTQFWÁºQ ETGUEG C WOC taxa constante gVCZCGUUCSWGUGT¶ KIWCN´VCZCFGETGUEKOGPVQFCTGPFC per capita em steady-state5GIWGUG RQTVCPVQ SWG Q ETGUEKOGPVQ FC renda per capita PºQ à GZRNKECFQ RGNQOQFGNQGOEQPUKFGTCÁºQ'NG à VQOCFQ EQOQ WO OGTQ HCVQ FC XKFCŒ 14'+41R
# RCTVKT FC FÃECFC FG CN IWPU CWVQTGU PGQEN¶UUKEQU EQOGÁC TCOCOQUVTCTWOPQXQKPVGTGUUGRGNC SWGUVºQFQETGUEKOGPVQGEQPÏOKEQ 'O UWC ITCPFG OCKQTKC CU PQXCU VGQTKCU CRTGUGPVCFCU VKPJCO EQOQ GUEQRQTGUQNXGTQRTQDNGOCGPEQPVTC FQRQT5QNQY PQSWGUGTGHGTG CQETGUEKOGPVQGEQPÏOKEQEQPVÈPWQ para o nível de renda per capita dos RCÈUGU#Unovas teorias do crescimento UºQ WUWCNOGPVG ENCUUKſECFCU GO FQKU ITWRQU VGPFQ EQOQ ETKVÃTKQ RCTC GUUC ENCUUKſECÁºQ C OWFCPÁC SWGQEQTTGPCGUVTWVWTCQOQFGNQFG 5QNQY 1RTKOGKTQITWRQTGÕPGQUOQ FGNQUFG4QOGT .WECU G4GDGNNQ 7OCFKHGTGPÁCKO RQTVCPVGGPVTGQUOQFGNQUSWGHC\GO RCTVGFGUUGPQXQITWRQGQOQFGNQ FG 5QNQY à SWG PCSWGNGU QU
RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONÔMICO
TGPFKOGPVQUOCTIKPCKUFQHCVQTCEW OWN¶XGN UºQ VKFQU EQOQ EQPUVCPVGU QWETGUEGPVGUGPSWCPVQPQOQFGNQ FG 5QNQY VCKU TGPFKOGPVQU UºQ FGETGUEGPVGU #FGOCKU GZEGVQ QOQFGNQFG.WECU VQFQUQU OQFGNQU FGUUG RTKOGKTQ ITWRQ GO EQPUKFGTCÁºQ VTCVCO C VGEPQNQIKC da mesma forma como ela é tratada RQT5QNQY QWUGLCEQOQWO DGORÕDNKEQ 'O UGW OQFGNQ 4GDGNNQ OQUVTC SWG CU FKHGTGPÁCU GPVTG as taxas de crescimento da renda per capita entre economias podem TGUWNVCT CRGPCU FG FKHGTGPÁCU PC tecnologia empregada nesses países QW FG FKHGTGPÁCU PCU RTGHGTÄPEKCU FQU EQPUWOKFQTGU FG ECFC TGIKºQ 2QTÃO Q UGIWPFQ CTIWOGPVQ NQIQ à FGUECTVCFQ RQKU UGIWPFQ 1TGKTQ
VGPVCTGZRNKECTCUFKHGTGPÁCU PCU RTGHGTÄPEKCU FQU EQPUWOKFQTGU UGTKCKPÕVKN4GDGNNQ EQPUKFGTC WOC GEQPQOKC GO SWG RTGXCNGEG C EQPEQTTÄPEKC RGTHGKVC QPFG VQFQ Q RTQFWVQ à ICUVQ PC TGOWPGTCÁºQ FQU HCVQTGU FG RTQFWÁºQ 'PVºQ UG as indústrias tivessem de pagar pelo WUQFCVGEPQNQIKCGORTGICFCGOUGW RTQEGUUQ FG RTQFWÁºQ GNCU LCOCKU CVKPIKTKCO UGW RQPVQ FG GSWKNÈDTKQ 2QTVCPVQ4GDGNNQ CUUKOEQOQ 5QNQY EQPENWK SWG C VGEPQ NQIKC FGXG UGT GPECTCFC EQOQ WO DGORÕDNKEQ&GUVCHQTOCVQFCUCU economias empregariam a mesma VGEPQNQIKCPQRTQEGUUQFGRTQFWÁºQ G EQPUGSWGPVGOGPVG CU FKHGTGPÁCU entre as taxas de crescimento e renda per capitaFGNCUFGUCRCTGEGTKCO 1 UGIWPFQ ITWRQ TGÕPG QU OQ FGNQU FG 4QOGT )TQUUOCP G*GNROCPP G#IJKQPG*Q YKVV 1U OQFGNQU SWG HC\GO RCTVG FGUUG ITWRQ GORTGICO WOC EQPEGRÁºQFGVGEPQNQIKCSWGÃUWDU VCPEKCNOGPVGFKHGTGPVGFCSWGNCSWG à GORTGICFC PQ OQFGNQ FG 5QNQY
4QOGT VTCVCQRTQITGU UQ VGEPQNÎIKEQ EQOQ EQPUGS×ÄPEKC FC DWUEC FCU KPFÕUVTKCU RQT NWETQ 0GUUG OQFGNQ C VGEPQNQIKC à WO DGOPºQTKXCNFGWUQIGTCNOCUSWG agora pode ser apropriada através
FGRCVGPVGURQTGZGORNQFGOQFQ SWG Q FQPQ FGUUC VGEPQNQIKC RQUUC QDVGT WOC TGPFC C RCTVKT FC XGPFC RCTCQWVTCUKPFÕUVTKCU#VGEPQNQIKC ECTCEVGTK\CFC FGUUC HQTOC FGUECTVC C JKRÎVGUG FG WOC GEQPQOKC GO EQPEQTTÄPEKCRGTHGKVC 4QOGT EQPUKFGTC WOC GEQPQOKCEQOVTÄUUGVQTGUQUGVQTFG RGUSWKUCGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQQUGVQT FGDGPUKPVGTOGFK¶TKQUGQUGVQTFG DGPUſPCKU1RTKOGKTQUGVQTWVKNK\CQ ECRKVCNJWOCPQGQGUVQSWGFGEQPJG EKOGPVQGZKUVGPVGRCTCRTQFW\KTPQ XQURTQLGVQUFGDGPUFGECRKVCN'UUGU UºQXGPFKFQUCQUGVQTFGRTQFWÁºQ FG DGPU KPVGTOGFK¶TKQU QPFG UGTºQ VTCPUHQTOCFQU GO PQXQU DGPU FG ECRKVCNSWGRQTUWCXG\UGTºQNKEGP EKCFQURCTCQUGVQTRTQFWVQTFGDGPU ſPCKUSWGQUEQODKPCEQOVTCDCNJQ G ECRKVCN JWOCPQ RCTC C RTQFWÁºQ FQU TGHGTKFQU DGPU # RTQFWÁºQ FG DGPUſPCKUÃWOCHWPÁºQFQXQNWOG GORTGICFQFGVTCDCNJQFCHTCÁºQFQ GUVQSWG FG ECRKVCN JWOCPQ GORTG ICFQPGUUGUGVQTGFCSWCPVKFCFGG FCXCTKGFCFGFGDGPUKPVGTOGFK¶TKQU GORTGICFQURCTCGUUGſO2QFGUG GPVºQEQPENWKTSWGQRTQITGUUQVGEPQ NÎIKEQCWOGPVCCRTQFWVKXKFCFGFQ VTCDCNJQCQCWOGPVCTCXCTKGFCFGG PºQCSWCNKFCFGFQUDGPUKPVGTOGFK ¶TKQUWVKNK\CFQURCTCCRTQFWÁºQFG DGPUſPCKU7OCTGFWÁºQFGGUVQSWG FG ECRKVCN JWOCPQ GORTGICFQ PQ UGVQTFGRGUSWKUCGFGUGPXQNXKOGPVQ RQTGZGORNQVGOQGHGKVQFGTGFW\KT a taxa de crescimento do nível de EQPJGEKOGPVQVGEPQNÎIKEQQSWGRQT UWCXG\KORÐGWOCTGFWÁºQPCVCZC FGETGUEKOGPVQFQPÈXGNFGRTQFWÁºQ GFQGUVQSWGFGECRKVCN%QPUKFGTCP FQSWGCUGEQPQOKCUFKHGTGOGPVTGUK PQSWGUGTGHGTG´USWCPVKFCFGUFGEC RKVCNJWOCPQ4QOGT CVTCXÃU FGEQORTQXCÁÐGUOQUVTCFCUGOUGW OQFGNQEQPUGIWGVQTPCTEQGTGPVGQ fato de existirem diferentes taxas de crescimento de renda per capita entre QUFKXGTUQURCÈUGUFQOWPFQ 8ÄUG GPVºQ SWG UG C VGEPQNQIKC HQT VTCVCFC EQOQ WO DGORÕDNKEQ EQOQ QEQTTG PQ OQFGNQ FG 5QNQY
G PQU QWVTQU OQFGNQU FG
Ano XIV Nº 26
Dezembro de 2012
Salvador, BA
crescimento com retornos crescentes QWEQPUVCPVGUFGGUECNCCTGPFCper capita FGXGT¶ ETGUEGT ´ OGUOC VCZC GO VQFQU QU RCÈUGU FQ OWPFQ &G OQFQ EQPVT¶TKQ UG C VGEPQNQIKC HQT VTCVCFC EQOQ WO DGO PºQTKXCN como ocorre no modelo de Romer
QUFKXGTUQURCÈUGUFQOWPFQ RQFGTºQCRTGUGPVCTFKHGTGPVGUVCZCU FG ETGUEKOGPVQFGUFGSWG PQ GUVQ SWGFGECRKVCNJWOCPQFGUUGURCÈUGU GZKUVCOFKHGTGPÁCU
3. Metodologia
1UFCFQUWVKNK\CFQURCTCCPCNKUCT CFKUVTKDWKÁºQGURCEKCNFCVGEPQNQIKC PC CVKXKFCFG RTQFWVKXC DTCUKNGKTC CFXGKQFC4CKU%CIGFVGPFQEQOQ proxy QGORTGIQHQTOCNFQU'UVCFQU RCTCQUCPQUFGG &GUUGOQFQQUUGVQTGU GQPÕ OGTQFGGORTGIQUIGTCFQURQTGNGU HQTCOENCUUKſECFQUFGCEQTFQEQOC OGVQFQNQIKC WUCFQU RQT (WTVCFQ G %CTXCNJQ Ŗ #NVC KPVGPUKFCFG VGEPQNÎIKEC UGVQTGU CGTQGURCEKCN HCTOCEÄWVKEQ FG KPHQTO¶VKEC GNGVTÏPKEC G VGNGEQ OWPKECÁÐGUGKPUVTWOGPVQU Ŗ/ÃFKCŌCNVCKPVGPUKFCFGVGEPQ NQIKC UGVQTGU FG OCVGTKCN GNÃVTKEQ XGÈEWNQU CWVQOQVQTGU SWÈOKEC GZ ENWÈFQQUGVQTHCTOCEÄWVKEQHGTTQXK ¶TKQGFGGSWKRCOGPVQFGVTCPURQTVG O¶SWKPCUGGSWKRCOGPVQU Ŗ/ÃFKCŌDCKZCKPVGPUKFCFGVGEPQ NÎIKECUGVQTGUFGEQPUVTWÁºQPCXCN DQTTCEJCGRTQFWVQURN¶UVKEQUEQSWG RTQFWVQU TGHKPCFQU FQ RGVTÎNGQ G FG EQODWUVÈXGKU PWENGCTGU QWVTQU RTQFWVQUPºQOGV¶NKEQUOGVCNWTIKC D¶UKECGRTQFWVQUOGV¶NKEQU Ŗ $CKZC KPVGPUKFCFG VGEPQNÎIK EC QWVTQU UGVQTGU G FG TGEKENCIGO RCRGNGEGNWNQUGGFKVQTKCNGIT¶ſEC CNKOGPVQUDGDKFCUGHWOQVÄZVKNGFG EQPHGEÁºQEQWTQGECNÁCFQU (GKVC C ENCUUKHKECÁºQ RÏFGUG KFGPVKſECT C FKUVTKDWKÁºQ FGUUCU KP FÕUVTKCURQTPÈXGNFGVGEPQNQIKCWVK NK\CPFQVÃEPKECUFGCP¶NKUGTGIKQPCN # EQPEGPVTCÁºQ FG ECFC PÈXGN VGEPQNÎIKEQ GO ECFC 'UVCFQ HQK CPCNKUCFC RQT OGKQ FQ SWQEKGPVG NQECEKQPCN3.
Ano XIV Nº 26 Dezembro de 2012
Onde: xiké o valor da variável x
GORTGIQRCTCCWPKFCFGVGTTKVQTKCN i e para o setor kxkTGHGTGUGCQXCNQT total da variável x para o setor kxié o valor total da variável xPCWPKFCFG espacial iGx é o valor registrado em todos os setores de atividade e todas CUWPKFCFGGURCEKCKU5GQXCNQTFQ 3.KMHQTOCKQTSWGWOQUGVQTk é re NCVKXCOGPVGEQPEGPVTCFQPCWPKFCFG territorial iUGHQTOGPQTQUGVQTk PºQGUV¶TGNCVKXCOGPVGEQPEGPVTCFQ &GUVCHQTOCKFGPVKſEQWUGSWCKUQU 'UVCFQUSWGEQPEGPVTCXCOCUKPFWU VTKCU EQO KPVGPUKFCFG VGEPQNÎIKEC OCKUGNGXCFCUGOG 2CTC CPCNKUCT Q ITCW FG EQPEGP VTCÁºQ FG ECFC PÈXGN VGEPQNÎIKEQ WUQWUGQEQGſEKGPVGFGNQECNK\CÁºQ
%. Q SWCN TGNCEKQPC C FKUVTK DWKÁºQRGTEGPVWCNFGGORTGIQPWO FCFQ TCOQ GPVTG TGIKÐGU EQO C FKUVTKDWKÁºQRGTEGPVWCNFQGORTGIQ VQVCNPCEKQPCNGPVTGCUTGIKÐGU *# &&
5G Q XCNQT FQ EQGHKEKGPVG HQT KIWCN C Q TCOQ i GUVC FKUVTKDWÈFQ TGIKQPCNOGPVGFCOGUOCHQTOCSWG Q EQPLWPVQ FG VQFQU QU TCOQU 5G Q UGW XCNQT UG CRTQZKOCT FG GNG FGOQPUVTC SWG Q TCOQ i apresenta WORCFTºQFGEQPEGPVTCÁºQTGIKQPCN OCKUKPVGPUQSWGQEQPLWPVQFGVQFQU QUTCOQU%QOKUUQRÏFGUGCPCNKUCT UGCUKPFWUVTKCKUEQOPÈXGKUVGEPQNÎ IKEQUOCKUGNGXCFQUCWOGPVCTCOUWC EQPEGPVTCÁºQCQNQPIQFQRCÈUGPVTG GQWUGCUWCFKUVTKDWKÁºQ VQTPQWUGOCKUJQOQIÄPGC .QIQRCTCKFGPVKſECTUGQEQTTG TCO OWFCPÁCU PC EQORQUKÁºQ FC GURGEKCNK\CÁºQ FG ECFC 'UVCFQ GO
Salvador, BA
VGTOQU FG EQPEGPVTCÁºQ FCU KPFÕU VTKCURQTPÈXGNVGEPQNÎIKEQWUQWUG QEQGſEKGPVGFGTGGUVTWVWTCÁºQ Q SWCNTGNCEKQPCCGUVTWVWTCFGGORTG IQPCTGIKºQjGPVTGFQKURGTÈQFQUC ſOFGCXCNKCTQITCWFGOWFCPÁCPC GURGEKCNK\CÁºQFGUVCTGIKºQ3WCPFQ QEQGſEKGPVGHQTKIWCNCPºQJQWXG OQFKſECÁÐGUPCEQORQUKÁºQFQUTC OQUFCTGIKºQ5GHQTKIWCNCWOC TGGUVTWVWTCÁºQRTQHWPFCPCEQORQ UKÁºQFQ'UVCFQQEQTTGWPQRGTÈQFQ FGC %156# Onde: IFKUVTKDWKÁºQFCCVKXK FCFG FG GORTGIQ PC TGIKºQ KPKEKCN I1 FKUVTKDWKÁºQ FC CVKXKFCFG FG GORTGIQPCTGIKºQſPCN 2QTſORCTCKPXGUVKICTCGZKUVÄP EKCFGWOCTGNCÁºQGPVTGCNQECNK\CÁºQ das atividades mais intensivas tecno NQIKECOGPVGGQETGUEKOGPVQFQ2+$
2TQFWVQ+PVGTPQ$TWVQFGECFC'UVC FQPQUCPQUFGGTQFQWUG WOOQFGNQGEQPQOÃVTKEQEQOFCFQU GO RCKPGN PQ SWCN C XCTK¶XGN FGRGPFGPVG HQK Q 2+$ Ō EQO FCFQU FQ +2'## XCNQTGU EQPUVCPVGU FGŌGCUXCTK¶XGKUGZRNKECVKXCU foram: a indústria de alta tecnologia
EQPUKFGTCPFQCUWCRCTVKEKRCÁºQPC KPFÕUVTKC EQOQ VQFQ G C KPFÕUVTKC FG DCKZC VGEPQNQIKC UGPFQ C UWC RCTVKEKRCÁºQPCKPFÕUVTKCEQOQVQFQ 'OSWGYit ÃQ2+$CRTGÁQEQPU VCPVG FG VGPFQ EQOQ HQPVG Q +2'## +# à C RCTVKEKRCÁºQ da indústria de alta tecnologia na KPFÕUVTKCEQOQWOVQFQ+$ÃCRCT VKEKRCÁºQ FC KPFÕUVTKC FG DCKZC VGE PQNQIKCPCKPFÕUVTKCEQOQWOVQFQ lnÃQNQICTKVOQ i UKIPKſECC iÃUKOC WPKFCFGVTCPUXGTUCN 'UVCFQGt é o tempo t CPQ #OGVQFQNQIKCWUCFCPCGUVKOC ÁºQFG HQKCFGFCFQUGORCKPGN WUCPFQKPHQTOCÁÐGUFQU'UVCFQU OCKU Q FQ &KUVTKVQ (GFGTCN RCTC QU
RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONÔMICO
RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONÔMICO
estimado por Feasible Generalizad Least Squares ().5EQOCOGVQFQNQIKCFG 'HGKVQ(KZQXKUCPFQEQTTKIKTVCNRTQDNGOCGEQPQOÃVTKEQWUCPFQQsoftware Stata
4. Análise dos dados
$WUECPFQ KFGPVKſECT C KORQTV¸PEKC FG ECFC UGVQT PC HQTOCÁºQ PQ 2+$ DTCUKNGKTQ PQ CPQ FG G CRTGUGPVCUG Q IT¶ſEQ 8GTKſECUG SWG FQ2+$GOGTCQTKWPFQFCRTQFWÁºQKPFWUVTKCNPQCPQFG OCPVGXGUGGUUCRCTVKEKRCÁºQCQOGUOQVGORQGOSWGQUGVQTFGUGTXKÁQU GNGXQWFGRCTC
)T¶ſEQ2CTVKEKRCÁºQ FGECFCUGVQTPQ2+$$TCUKNGKTQŌ e 2009 2002 2009 80
70 Participação no PIB (%)
CPQUFGG3WCPFQUGWUC FCFQU GO RCKPGN FGXGUG FGEKFKT GPVTGGUVKOCÁºQRQT2QQNGF1NU 21 GHGKVQU ſZQU '( G CNGCVÎTKQU '# 0CGUVKOCÁºQRQTPOVQFQUQUEQG ſEKGPVGUUºQEQPUVCPVGUCQNQPIQFQ VGORQGGPVTGQUKPFKXÈFWQU2QTEF CUUWOGUG SWG CU FKHGTGPÁCU GPVTG CU WPKFCFGU FG CP¶NKUG RQFGO UGT EQPUKFGTCFCUEQOQOWFCPÁCURCTC OÃVTKECU FC HWPÁºQ FG RTQFWÁºQ ' QOÃVQFQFGGUVKOCÁºQXKCEA tem EQOQUWRQUKÁºQSWGCGURGEKſEKFCFG FGECFCWPKFCFGFGCP¶NKUGÃFKUVTK DWÈFCFGHQTOCCNGCVÎTKC#RTKPEKRCN OQVKXCÁºQ RCTC C WVKNK\CÁºQ FGUUC VÃEPKEC FCFQUGORCKPGNÃCRQUUK DKNKFCFGFQEQPVTQNGFQEQORQPGPVG PºQQDUGTX¶XGN %%QPHQTOG9QQN FTKFIG ECUQQOGUOQPºQUGLC correlacionado com as variáveis ex RNKECVKXCUFQOQFGNQVCPVQQOQFGNQ 2QQNGFSWCPVQQOQFGNQFG'HGKVQU #NGCVÎTKQUHQTPGEGOGUVKOCVKXCUEQP UKUVGPVGUFQURCT¸OGVTQUOCUECUQQ EQORQPGPVGPºQQDUGTX¶XGN %UGLC correlacionado com as variáveis ex RNKECVKXCUFCGSWCÁºQGUUGUOQFGNQU UGTºQKPEQPUKUVGPVGU0GUUCUKVWCÁºQ RCTCUGQDVGTGUVKOCVKXCUEQPUKUVGPVGU FQU RCT¸OGVTQU FGXGUG WVKNK\CT Q OQFGNQFG'HGKVQU(KZQU 0GUVGUGPVKFQRCTCFGEKFKTGPVTG EA e POWVKNK\QWUGQVGUVGHGKVQRQT $TGWUEJG2CICP /WNVKRNKECFQTFG .CITCPIG RCTC 'HGKVQU #NGCVÎTKQU PQ SWCN C JKRÎVGUG PWNC à C FG SWG PºQJCXGPFQFKHGTGPÁCGPVTG '#G2QQNGF1NU1TGUWNVCFQFQVGUVG HQKKIWCNCTGLGKVCPFQCJKRÎVGUG PWNCGKPFKECPFQSWGCOGVQFQNQIKC de EAÃCOCKUCFGSWCFC 1 RTÎZKOQ RCUUQ HQK FGEKFKT GPVTG GHGKVQ CNGCVÎTKQ G ſZQ 2CTC KUUQWVKNK\QWUGQVGUVGFGHausman QRVCPFQRGNQOÃVQFQFGGHGKVQUſZQU FCFQ SWG Q XCNQT FG HQK KIWCN C TGLGKVCPFQCJKRÎVGUGPWNC 2QTſOſ\GTCOUGQUVGUVGUGEQ PQOÃVTKEQU FG OWNVKEQNKPGCTKFCFG (CVQTFGKPƀCÁºQFCXCTK¸PEKCEQO XCNQT FG JGVGTQEGFCUVKEKFCFG
$TGWUEJ2CICP EQO XCNQT FG RCTC KFGPVKſECPFQRTQDNGOCUFG JGVGTQEGFCUVKEKFCFG2QTKUUQ HQK
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Agricultura
Indústria
Serviço
Fonte: Dados originais IPEADATA
2QTOCKUSWGQUGVQTKPFWUVTKCNVGPJCOCPVKFQUWCRCTVKEKRCÁºQPQFGEQTTGT FGUUGRGTÈQFQPºQGNGXCPFQCCNIWPUCWVQTGUEQOQ*+45%*#/0 FGUVCECOSWGQUGWETGUEKOGPVQVGTKCOCKQTGUKORCEVQURQUKVKXQUPCGEQPQOKC FQSWGQUFGOCKUUGVQTGU+UUQUGTKCTGUWNVCFQFGWOPÈXGNOCKUGNGXCFQFG GPECFGCOGPVQURCTCHTGPVGGRCTCVT¶UFCKPFÕUVTKCGFGWOCOCKQTTGNGX¸PEKC FCUUWCUGZVGTPCNKFCFGURQUKVKXCUGFQUUGWUGHGKVQUFGVTCPUDQTFCOGPVQU #UUKO RQT OCKU SWG C KPFÕUVTKC VGPJC RGTFKFQ RCTVKEKRCÁºQ PC HQTOCÁºQ FQ2+$FQ$TCUKN3QUGWETGUEKOGPVQGFKP¸OKECVQTPCUGKORQTVCPVGRCTCC GEQPQOKCFQRCÈU #NÃOFKUUQ-CNFQT FGUVCECSWGCTGCNK\CÁºQFGKPXGUVKOGPVQUPGUVG UGVQTEQPFW\GOIGTCNCWOCOGNJQTCPQUPÈXGKUFGVGEPQNQIKCXKCKPEQTRQ TCÁºQFGPQXCUO¶SWKPCUGGSWKRCOGPVQU4QOGT FGOQPUVTCGOUGW OQFGNQSWGQUCXCPÁQUVGEPQNÎIKEQUEQPUVKVWGOWORQPVQKORQTVCPVÈUUKOQ PCFGVGTOKPCÁºQFCUFKHGTGPÁCUSWCPVQ´FKP¸OKECGEQPÏOKECFCUPCÁÐGU 0GUVGUGPVKFQÃSWGUGCPCNKUCPCUGS×ÄPEKCCEQORQUKÁºQVGEPQNÎIKEC FC KPFÕUVTKC DTCUKNGKTC PQ CPQ FG )T¶ſEQ ENCUUKſECPFQC GO CNVC VGEPQNQIKCOÃFKCCNVCOÃFKCDCKZCGDCKZCVGEPQNQIKC &RPRYHULÀFDGRWDPEpPSRURXWURVDXWRUHVFRPR1DNDEDVKL6FDWROLQH9DUJDV da Cruz (2010), que mostram que de 1948 até meados de 1980 a indústria JDQKRXSDUWLFLSDomRHLPSRUWkQFLDQDGLQkPLFDGDHFRQRPLDHQDVHTrQFLD (a partir de meados de 1980), sofreu uma perda considerável de participação.
3
Ano XIV Nº 26
Dezembro de 2012
Salvador, BA
)T¶ſEQ &KXKUºQ FC RTQFWÁºQ KPFWUVTKCN RQT PÈXGN FG KPVGPUKFCFG tecnológica em 2009
“
Já na de médiaEDL[D6mR3DXOR Minas Gerais e Rio Grande do Sul, respectivamente, foram responsável por mais de 50% dos empregos gerados, tanto em 2009 como em
#GZKUVÄPEKCFCRTQFWÁºQFGDGPU em setores de alta intensidade tecno NÎIKEC à FG UWOC KORQTV¸PEKC RCTC C GEQPQOKC FG WO RCÈU 2QTÃO PQ $TCUKN C RCTVKEKRCÁºQ FGUUGU UGVQTGU CKPFCÃRQWEQTGRTGUGPVCVKXC )T¶ſ EQ8ÄUGSWGQUPÈXGKUFGDCKZCG OÃFKCDCKZCKPVGPUKFCFGVGEPQNÎIKEC UºQLWPVQUQUOCKUKORQTVCPVGURCTC CKPFÕUVTKCDTCUKNGKTCUQOCPFQ FCRTQFWÁºQVQVCN'UUGUUGVQTGUEQP EGPVTCO C HCDTKECÁºQ FG CNKOGPVQU OCFGKTCRCRGNGEGNWNQUGOGVCNWTIKC D¶UKECGPVTGQWVTQU #UKPFÕUVTKCUFGOÃFKCCNVCGCNVC KPVGPUKFCFG VGEPQNÎIKEC UQOCTCO CRGPCUFCRTQFWÁºQKPFWUVTKCN GO'NCUCDTCPIGOCRTQFWÁºQ FG CWVQOQVQTGU CGTQPCXGU KPFÕU VTKCU SWÈOKEC G HCTOCEÄWVKEC GPVTG QWVTCU 'UUCU RTQFWÁÐGU GZKIGO GO IGTCN WO PÈXGN CXCPÁCFQ FG VGEPQNQIKC#EQPUGS×ÄPEKCRQUKVKXC FC WVKNK\CÁºQ FG OCKU VGEPQNQIKC à WOC RTQFWVKXKFCFG GNGXCFC 5QW\C
EQPHKTOC KUUQ CQ FK\GT SWG WOCWOGPVQFQGUHQTÁQVGEPQNÎIKEQ GZGTEG GHGKVQU GZRCPUKXQU UQDTG Q RTQFWVQ CQ GNGXCT C RTQFWVKXKFCFG dos fatores e ao retransmitir esses GHGKVQU´UWPKFCFGURTQFWVKXCU # RTQFWVKXKFCFG FQU HCVQTGU FG RTQFWÁºQ à FG ITCPFG KORQT
Ano XIV Nº 26 Dezembro de 2012
V¸PEKC RCTC WOC GEQPQOKC 4QEJC
CTIWOGPVC SWG GO RCÈUGU GO FGUGPXQNXKOGPVQ C CEGNGTCÁºQ do crescimento econômico teria EQOQ FGVGTOKPCPVGU RTKPEKRCKU WO CWOGPVQPCVCZCFGKPXGUVKOGPVQG C CEGNGTCÁºQ FC RTQFWVKXKFCFG FQU HCVQTGU FG RTQFWÁºQ Ō GUVG ÕNVKOQ RTKPEKRCNOGPVG CUUQEKCFQ C WOC TGCNQECÁºQ FQU TGEWTUQU RCTC QU UGVQTGU FG OCKQT RTQFWVKXKFCFG &GUUGOQFQCRTQFWÁºQFGDGPUFG CNVC VGEPQNQIKC OQUVTCUG GUUGPEKCN RCTC C GEQPQOKC FG WO RCÈU EQOQ Q $TCUKN RQT GZGORNQ &C OGUOC HQTOC RCTC /CTKPJQ G $KVVGPEQWTV
GUUCRTQFWVKXKFCFGVQVCNFQU HCVQTGUÃQÕPKEQGNGOGPVQECRC\FG UWUVGPVCTWOETGUEKOGPVQGEQPÏOKEQ RQTNQPIQURGTÈQFQUFGVGORQ 1WUGLCGZKUVGCPGEGUUKFCFGFGUG fomentar principalmente a indústria FGCNVCVGEPQNQIKCRCTCSWGUGVGPJC WOETGUEKOGPVQUWUVGPV¶XGNPQNQPIQ RTC\QPQRCÈUUGIWPFQGUUGUCWVQTGU 4GIKQPCNOGPVG EQPUKFGTCPFQ QU 'UVCFQU FQ $TCUKN QDUGTXCUG EGTVC FGUKIWCNFCFG SWCPVQ ´ FKUVTKDWKÁºQ espacial das indústrias mais intensi XCUGOVGEPQNQIKC#PCNKUCPFQG 6CDGNCGRGTEGDGUGSWGRCTC CUKPFÕUVTKCUFGDCKZCGOÃFKCDCKZC KPVGPUKFCFGVGEPQNÎIKECCRCTVKEKRCÁºQ
Salvador, BA
”
dos Estados na atividade econômica à OCKU JQOQIÄPGC GPSWCPVQ SWG PQUUGVQTGUFGOÃFKCCNVCGCNVCVGE PQNÎIKECRQWEQU'UVCFQUEQPVTKDWGO UKIPKſECVKXCOGPVG EQO Q VQVCN /CU GURGEKſECFCOGPVG5ºQ2CWNQÃQSWG FGVGXGVCPVQGOEQOQGO mais da metade dos empregos gera dos na indústria de alta e de média CNVCVGEPQNQIKCFGOQPUVTCPFQCEQP EGPVTCÁºQGURCEKCNFGVCKUKPFÕUVTKCU ,¶PCFGOÃFKCDCKZC5ºQ2CWNQ /KPCU )GTCKU G 4KQ )TCPFG FQ 5WN TGURGEVKXCOGPVGHQTCOTGURQPU¶XGN RQTOCKUFGFQUGORTGIQUIG TCFQUVCPVQGOEQOQGO ' PC DCKZC VGEPQNQIKC 5ºQ 2CWNQ 4KQ )TCPFG FQ 5WN 5CPVC %CVCTKPC G /KPCU )GTCKU TGURGEVKXCOGPVG TGURQPFGTCORQTOCKUFGFCIG TCÁºQFGGORTGIQGO'O HQTCO 5ºQ 2CWNQ 5CPVC %CVCTKPC G 2CTCP¶EQPUGEWVKXCOGPVG 'UUGUTGUWNVCFQUFGOQPUVTCOSWG os setores mais intensivos em tecno NQIKC GUVCXCO NQECNK\CFQU VCPVQ GO EQOQGOGOCNIWPURQPVQU FQRCÈU#NÃOFKUUQCKPFÕUVTKCEQOQ WO VQFQ VKPJC C UWC TGRTGUGPVCVKXK FCFG RTKPEKRCNOGPVG PQ 5WFGUVG G 5WNFQ$TCUKNEQOGZEGÁºQCRGPCUFQ 'UVCFQ FQ #OC\QPCU SWG VCODÃO HQKRCTVKEKRCVKXQGOCNIWPUUGVQTGU
RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONÔMICO
Tabela 1: Participação de cada Estado em cada nível tecnológico da indústria – 2002 (%) Indústria Estado Baixa tecn.
Média-baixa tecn.
Média-alta tecn.
Alta tecn.
Rondônia
Acre
#OC\QPCU
Roraima
2CT¶
Amapá
6QECPVKPU
/CTCPJºQ
2KCWÈ
%GCT¶
Rio Grande do Norte
2CTCÈDC
2GTPCODWEQ
Alagoas
5GTIKRG
$CJKC
/KPCU)GTCKU
9,40
12,14
'URÈTKVQ5CPVQ
4KQFG,CPGKTQ
5ºQ2CWNQ
26,62
38,29
55,48
56,65
2CTCP¶
5CPVC%CVCTKPC
9,54
4KQ)TCPFGFQ5WN
12,15
9,52
/CVQ)TQUUQFQ5WN
/CVQ)TQUUQ
Goiás
&KUVTKVQ(GFGTCN
(QPVG&CFQUQTKIKPCKUFC4#+5VTCDCNJCFQURGNQCWVQT
RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONÔMICO
Ano XIV Nº 26
Dezembro de 2012
Salvador, BA
Tabela 2: Participação de cada Estado em cada nível tecnológico da indústria – 2009 (%). Indústria Estado Baixa tecn.
Média-baixa tecn.
Média-alta tecn.
Alta tecn.
Rondônia
Acre
#OC\QPCU
Roraima
2CT¶
Amapá
6QECPVKPU
/CTCPJºQ
2KCWÈ
%GCT¶
Rio Grande do Norte
2CTCÈDC
2GTPCODWEQ
Alagoas
5GTIKRG
$CJKC
/KPCU)GTCKU
12,39
'URÈTKVQ5CPVQ
4KQFG,CPGKTQ
5ºQ2CWNQ
26,12
36,97
50,87
52,93
2CTCP¶
9,52
5CPVC%CVCTKPC
9,99
4KQ)TCPFGFQ5WN
9,66
8,54
/CVQ)TQUUQFQ5WN
/CVQ)TQUUQ
Goiás
&KUVTKVQ(GFGTCN
Fonte: Dados originais da RAIS, trabalhados pelo autor.
Ano XIV Nº 26 Dezembro de 2012
Salvador, BA
RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONÔMICO
'UUCRCTVKEKRCÁºQTGNCVKXCFGCNIWPU'UVCFQUPCEQORQUKÁºQFQUUGVQTGU OCKU KPVGPUKXQU VGEPQNQIKECOGPVG à EQORTQXCFC VCODÃO RGNQ EQGſEKGPVG FGNQECNK\CÁºQ 6CDGNC2GTEGDGUGSWGVCPVQGOSWCPVQGOC KPFÕUVTKCFGOÃFKCDCKZCVGEPQNQIKCGTCOCKUFKURGTUCCQEQPVT¶TKQFCCNVC VGEPQNQIKCSWGCRTGUGPVQWWOEQGſEKGPVGOCKUFKUVCPVGFG\GTQ1WUGLCCU KPFÕUVTKCUOCKUKPVGPUKXCUGOVGEPQNQIKCGUVCXCOEQPEGPVTCFCUGORQWEQU 'UVCFQUGOOCPVGPFQGUUCOGUOCECTCEVGTÈUVKECGO
6CDGNC%QGſEKGPVGFGNQECNK\CÁºQTGHGTGPVGCQUPÈXGKUVGEPQNÎgicos da indústria – Estados – 2002 e 2009 Intensidade Tecnológica da indústria
2002
2009
$CKZC
/ÃFKC$CKZC
/ÃFKCCNVC
Alta
Fonte: O autor
RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONÔMICO
“
3RGHVHQRWDUHQWmR que nos dois anos DQDOLVDGRVRQtYHO GHEDL[DLQWHQVLGDGH tecnológica, por exemplo, apresentou 21 Estados especializados na SURGXomRGHEHQV GHVVHVHWRU
”
/CKUGURGEKſECFCOGPVGCCP¶NK UG SWCPVQ ´ GURGEKCNK\CÁºQ FG ECFC 'UVCFQ (KIWTC G FGOQPUVTQW SWG SWCPFQ UG TGHGTG C KPFÕUVTKCU FGDCKZCGOÃFKCDCKZCVGEPQNQIKCC KPEKFÄPEKCFGGUVCFQUGURGEKCNK\CFQU PCRTQFWÁºQÃOWKVQOCKQTFQSWG PQUPÈXGKUFGOÃFKCCNVCGCNVCKPVGP UKFCFG VGEPQNÎIKEC 1 ÈPFKEG OCKQT SWGWOPQSWQEKGPVGNQECEKQPCNTG RTGUGPVCSWGQGUVCFQÃGURGEKCNK\CFQ PC KPFÕUVTKC FQ PÈXGN VGEPQNÎIKEQ CPCNKUCFQ 2QFGUG PQVCT GPVºQ SWG nos dois anos analisados o nível de DCKZC KPVGPUKFCFG VGEPQNÎIKEC RQT GZGORNQ CRTGUGPVQW 'UVCFQU GURGEKCNK\CFQUPCRTQFWÁºQFGDGPU FGUUGUGVQT,¶PQUPÈXGKUFGOÃFKC CNVCGCNVCKPVGPUKFCFGVGEPQNÎIKECC KPEKFÄPEKCFGGUVCFQUGURGEKCNK\CFQU GTCOWKVQTCTCŌQSWGFGOQPUVTCSWG SWCPVQOCKQTCVGEPQNQIKCWVKNK\CFC PQ UGVQT OCKQT à C FKſEWNFCFG FQU GUVCFQU GO UG GURGEKCNK\CTGO PC RTQFWÁºQ FGUUGU DGPU 0QVCUG PQU FQKU CPQU WOC RCTVKEWNCTKFCFG Q #OC\QPCUCRTGUGPVQWWOSWQEKGPVG NQECEKQPCN FG G FG RCTC Q PÈXGN FG CNVC KPVGPUKFCFG VGEPQNÎIK ECGOGTGURGEVKXCOGPVG
#PGZQU # G $ Q SWG FGOQPUVTC SWGQ'UVCFQCRTGUGPVCWOCITCPFG GURGEKCNK\CÁºQTGHGTGPVG´RTQFWÁºQ FGDGPUFGUUGUGVQT
Ano XIV Nº 26
Dezembro de 2012
Salvador, BA
Figura 2: Quociente locacional (QL) dos níveis tecnológicos da indústria para cada estado brasileiro – 2009
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Porém, pelos UHVXOWDGRVREWLGRV SHUFHEHVHTXH essas industrias mais intensivas em tecnologia ainda se concentram em SRXFRVHVSDoRVGR SDtV-iDVLQG~VWULDV GHEDL[DWHFQRORJLD HVWmRSUHVHQWHV na grande maioria dos Estados como dinamizadoras de VXDVHFRQRPLDV
”
Fonte: Resultado da Pesquisa Nota: (a) indústrias de baixa tecnologia; (b) média-baixa; (c) média-alta e; (d) alta tecnologia.
8KUWCNOGPVG ſIWTCGVCODÃOUGRGTEGDGRQWECCNVGTCÁºQSWCPVQ ´ GURGEKCNK\CÁºQ FG ECFC 'UVCFQ +UUQ à EQTTQDQTCFQ EQO Q EQGſEKGPVG FG TGFKUVTKDWKÁºQNQECEKQPCNFQUPÈXGKUVGEPQNÎIKEQUFGRCTC 6CDGNC QSWCNOQUVTCSWGQUSWCVTQPÈXGKUVGEPQNÎIKEQUPºQOWFCTCOPGOFKU RGTUCTCOUKIPKſECVKXCOGPVGUWCNQECNK\CÁºQFWTCPVGQVGORQGUVWFCFQ'UVG EQGſEKGPVGTGIKUVTCSWCNSWGTCNVGTCÁºQPQRCFTºQTGNCVKXQFGNQECNK\CÁºQFG ECFCUGVQTPGUUGUGPVKFQSWCPVQOCKURTÎZKOQFGOCKQTVGPFGCUGTCOQ FKſECÁºQFCTGRCTVKÁºQFCNQECNK\CÁºQFQUGVQT%QOQQUTGUWNVCFQUQDVKFQU HQTCORTÎZKOQUFG\GTQRQFGUGGPVºQEQPENWKTSWGCUKPFÕUVTKCUFGECFC PÈXGNPºQOKITCTCOPGOUGFKURGTUCTCOUKIPKſECVKXCOGPVGRGNQRCÈUGPVTG QUCPQUFGCGPHCVK\CPFQSWGCRQWECCNVGTCÁºQSWGUGVGXGUGFGW GORTQNFQUPÈXGKUOCKUGNGXCFQUFGVGEPQNQIKC
6CDGNC%QGſEKGPVGFGTGGUVTWVWTCÁºQTGHGTGPVGCQUPÈXGKUVGEnológicos da indústria – Estados – 2002 a 2009 +PVGPUKFCFG6GEPQNÎIKECFCKPFÕUVTKC $CKZC /ÃFKCDCKZC /ÃFKCCNVC Alta Fonte: O autor
Ano XIV Nº 26 Dezembro de 2012
Salvador, BA
%4
5CDGUG RGNC VGQTKC G RQT CTIW OGPVQU L¶ CRTGUGPVCFQU CPVGTKQTG OPVG SWG CXCPÁQU VGEPQNÎIKEQU G UGVQTGUKPFWUVTKCKUFGCNVCVGEPQNQIKC UºQ ITCPFGU HQPVGU RCTC Q ETGUEK OGPVQ GEQPÏOKEQ 2QTÃO RGNQU TGUWNVCFQU QDVKFQU RGTEGDGUG SWG GUUCU KPFWUVTKCU OCKU KPVGPUKXCU em tecnologia ainda se concentram GO RQWEQU GURCÁQU FQ RCÈU ,¶ CU KPFÕUVTKCU FG DCKZC VGEPQNQIKC GU VºQ RTGUGPVGU PC ITCPFG OCKQTKC FQU 'UVCFQU EQOQ FKPCOK\CFQTCU FG UWCU GEQPQOKCU &GUUC HQTOC SWGUVKQPCUG UQDTG C GZKUVÄPEKC FG WOC TGNCÁºQ UKIPKHKECVKXC GPVTG Q PÈXGNVGEPQNÎIKEQKPFÕUVTKCNFGECFC 'UVCFQ G Q UGW 2+$ OGPUWTCPFQ CUUKOCUWCKORQTV¸PEKC 1UTGUWNVCFQUGUVºQCRTGUGPVCFQU PC6CDGNC6CPVQCKPFÕUVTKCFGDCK xa como a de alta tecnologia exercem WOGHGKVQRQUKVKXCGUKIPKſECVKXQC WOPÈXGNFGRQTÃOCOCIPKVWFG FGUUGGHGKVQÃOCKQTSWCPFQUGVGO WOC KPFÕUVTKC VGEPQNQIKECOGPVG OCKUCXCPÁCFC'URGEKſECFCOGPVG
RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONÔMICO
WOCWOGPVQFGPCRCTVKEKRCÁºQ FC KPFÕUVTKC FG DCKZC VGEPQNQIKC GNGXCQ2+$FQU'UVCFQUGO GPSWCPVQ SWG WO CWOGPVQ FG FC KPFWUVTKC FG CNVC CETGUEG Q 2+$ GO +UUQ XGO C EQTTQDQTCT EQOCUCTIWOGPVCÁÐGUVGÎTKECUSWG TGHQTÁCOUGTCKPFÕUVTKCQOQVQTFQ ETGUEKOGPVQGEQPÏOKEQ -#.&14 FCFQSWGVCPVQCFGKPVGPUKFC FGDCKZCEQOQCFGCNVCKPƀWGPEKCO Q ETGUEKOGPVQ GEQPÏOKEQ /CKU FQ SWG KUUQ QWVTQU CWVQTGU 51.19 2+'2'4FGUVCECOCKO RQTVCPEKC FCU KPFÕUVTKCU RCWVCFCU GOVGEPQNQIKCUOCKUCXCPÁCFCURCTC FKPCOK\CT Q ETGUEKOGPVQ GEQPÏOK EQ G HQK GZCVCOGOVG KUUQ SWG UG XGTKſEQWRCTCQU'UVCFQUDTCUKNGKTQU SWCPFQEQPUKFGTCFQQUCPQUFG G #UUKO C KPFÕUVTKC VGO WOC TGNGX¸PEKC UKIPKſECVKXC RCTC Q FG UGORGPJQGEQPÏOKEQFQU'UVCFQU FQRCÈUGZKUVKPFQWOCFKHGTGPEKC ÁºQFGGHGKVQSWCPFQUGVGOKPFÕU VTKCUEQOPÈXGKUVGEPQNÎIKEQUOCKU CXCPÁCFQU
“
Considerando essa HVSHFLDOL]DomR de cada Estado, a grande maioria apresentou as LQG~VWULDVPHQRV intensivas em tecnologia como propulsoras de seu desenvolvimento econômico, ao passo que poucos Estados apresentaram HVSHFLDOL]DomRQDV LQG~VWULDVGHDOWD WHFQROyJLFD
”
Tabela 5: Resultado Econométricos da relação entre a baixa e alta tecnologia da indústria e o PIB dos Estados – 2002 e 2009 Variável dependente .P;
Constante
Variáveis Explicativas Ln IA
Ln IB
Fonte: O autor 1RWD VLJQLÀFDWLYRDXPQtYHOGHVLJQLÀFkQFLDGHYDORUHVHQWUHSDUrQWHVHUHIHUHPVH ao teste t. Y é o PIB; IA é a participação da indústria de alta tecnologia na indústria como um todo; IB é a participação da indústria de baixa tecnologia na indústria como um todo; ln é o logaritmo.
%QPUKFGTCÁÐGUſPCKU
1QDLGVKXQFGUUGVTCDCNJQGTCCPCNKUCTCFKUVTKDWKÁºQGURCEKCNFCUKPFÕUVTKCU DTCUKNGKTCURQTRCFTºQVGEPQNÎIKEQPQUCPQUFGG1UTGUWNVCFQU QDVKFQUFGOQPUVTCTCOSWGGOCODQUQUCPQUCPCNKUCFQUCTGURQPUCDKNKFCFG pela maior parte dos empregos gerados nas indústrias de mais alta intensida FGVGEPQNÎIKECŌOÃFKCCNVCGCNVCKPVGPUKFCFGŌGTCFGVKFCRQTWOCRGSWGPC SWCPVKFCFGFG'UVCFQU0CUKPFÕUVTKCUFGKPVGPUKFCFGVGEPQNÎIKECOCKUDCKZC ŌDCKZCGOÃFKCDCKZCKPVGPUKFCFGŌQTGUWNVCFQQDVKFQHQKQEQPVT¶TKQ2CTC QUOGUOQUCPQUGUVWFCFQURGTEGDGWUGSWGCRCTVKEKRCÁºQFQU'UVCFQUSWG EQORWPJCOCOCKQTRCTVGFCHQTOCÁºQFGGORTGIQPGUUGUPÈXGKUVGEPQNÎIKEQU GTCUKIPKſECVKXCOGPVGOCKQT
RDE - REVISTA DE DESENVOLVIMENTO ECONÔMICO
'UUC KPHGTÄPEKC KPKEKCN HQK EQO RTQXCFC RGNQ EQGſEKGPVG FG NQEC NK\CÁºQ &GOQPUVTQWUG SWG VCPVQ GOEQOQGOCUKPFÕUVTKCU mais intensivas em tecnologia esta XCO EQPEGPVTCFCU GO RQWEQU 'U VCFQU1UTGUWNVCFQUTGNCVKXCOGPVG OCKUFKUVCPVGUFGWOQDVKFQURCTC QUPÈXGKUFGOÃFKCCNVCGCNVCKPVGP UKFCFGVGEPQNÎIKECGXKFGPEKCOKUUQ 0QVQWUGGPVºQSWGSWCPVQOCKUKP VGPUCCVGEPQNQIKCFGWOCKPFÕUVTKC OCKUFKHÈEKNVQTPCUGCGURGEKCNK\CÁºQ FQU 'UVCFQU PC RTQFWÁºQ FG DGPU FGUUGPÈXGN %QPUKFGTCPFQ GUUC GURGEKCNK \CÁºQ FG ECFC 'UVCFQ C ITCPFG OCKQTKC CRTGUGPVQW CU KPFÕUVTKCU menos intensivas em tecnologia EQOQ RTQRWNUQTCU FG UGW FGUGP XQNXKOGPVQ GEQPÏOKEQ CQ RCUUQ SWG RQWEQU 'UVCFQU CRTGUGPVCTCO GURGEKCNK\CÁºQPCUKPFÕUVTKCUFGCNVC VGEPQNÎIKEC #NÃOFKUUQQEQGſEKGPVGFGTG FKUVTKDWKÁºQNQECEKQPCNVGXGXCNQTGU DCUVCPVG DCKZQU SWCPFQ EQPUKFG radas todas as intensidades tecno NÎIKECU 6CN TGUWNVCFQ TGHQTÁC SWG C CNVGTCÁºQ QEQTTKFC PC GUVTWVWTC RTQFWVKXC NQECEKQPCN UQHTGW RQW SWÈUUKOCCNVGTCÁºQFWTCPVGQUCPQU GUVWFCFQU 0GUVG UGPVKFQ PºQ GZKUVG WOC VGPFÄPEKCFGCNVGTCÁºQFCGUVTWVWTC RTQFWVKXCCQNQPIQFQRCÈUXKUCPFQ UGVQTGUKPFWUVTKCKUVGEPQNQIKECOGP VG CXCPÁCFQU UG EQPUKFGTCT GUUG KPVGTXCNQ FG VGORQ GPVTG G %QOQ CTIWOGPVQU VGÎTKEQU TGHQTÁCO C PGEGUUKFCFG FG GZRTGU UKXQUCXCPÁQUVGEPQNÎIKEQUPQUGVQT KPFWUVTKCNRCTCSWGQDVGPJCUGWO ETGUEKOGPVQ GEQPÏOKEQ OCKU FKP¸ OKEQ G EQOQ C RTÎRTKC GUVKOCVKXC GHGVWCFC PQ VTCDCNJQ KPFKEQW WOC TGNCÁºQRQUKVKXCGPWOCOCIPKVWFG OCKUGZRTGUUKXCGPVTGQ2+$FGECFC Estado e a indústria de alta tecnolo IKCGPVºQRQNÈVKECURÕDNKECUFGXGO UGT KORNGOGPVCFCU RCTC SWG WO número maior de Estados possam UGGURGEKCNK\CTPCRTQFWÁºQFGDGPU FGVGEPQNQIKCOCKUGNGXCFC
Ano XIV Nº 26
Dezembro de 2012
Salvador, BA
Referências
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.CVKPC +P / %+/1.+ 'F Heterogeneidad Estructural, Asimetrías Tecnológicas y Crecimiento en América Latina5CPVKCIQ$+&%'2#.
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