Center for Scientific Analysis of Policy, LLC http://www.scipolicy.org
White Paper Series: Case Studies Using IPA to Evaluate Policies of 2016 Presidential Candidates
Rand Paul’s Paul’s Economic Policy: Policy: A Structural Case Study Steven E. Wallis, PhD; Bernadette Wright, PhD
Due to the large number of candidates running for president and the complexity of their policy statements, we present this analysis to help voters understand, evaluate, and compare those policies to support decision-making and our democratic process.
same was as a road map with more roads and destination provides a more useful tool for planning a business trip or a vacation. Although there were some statements in the text that might be seen as fuzzy or ambiguous, we made a good-faith effort to reflect the candidate’s position accurately. We are open to additional information and to revised analyses with the goal of creating the most accurate representation possible.
Rand Paul is a 2016 Republican Candidate for U.S. President. In this white paper, we present the results of an Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) study of his economic policy as presented on his website: https://www.randpaul.com/issue/spendingComparison of Policies and-debt 1 https://www.randpaul.com/issue/taxes
Successful policies should be located in this quadrant
Our goal here is to conduct a scientific, nonpartisan evaluation to suggest the potential for success, along with opportunities for improvement, of that policy. It is not our intent to suggest that the policy might be right or wrong, good or bad (as partisan analyses might claim). Instead, our focus is on whether the policy will have the effects anticipated according to the text provided by the candidate.
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Breadth Paul’s economic policy
Another way to explain this is that we are looking at the policy as a sense-making device or as a kind of map. Higher scores indicate greater ability to make effective policy decisions. This indicates the policy’s ability to reach its stated goals in much the
Method of Analysis This evaluation is primarily an analysis of the internal logic-structures of the policy. Those provide useful indicators of the policy’s
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sense-making ability and predictors for its potential success or failure. Two important assumptions may present additional challenges to the effectiveness of any policy. First, the extent to which the claims of the policy are based on good empirical data. Second, the extent to which the policy may be implemented as proposed. Those two issues may present additional challenges to the effectiveness of this policy. However, they are not part of our present analysis.
http://scipolicy.org/principles-of-ipa--white-papers.html Results of Analysis We used IPA to identify relevant propositions from the text of Rand Paul’s economic policy and developed the causal mapbelow: As seen, there are 16 concepts (one per box). Therefore, the “Breadth” of the policy map is equal to 16. The Breadth of this policy is low. This indicates a great weakness of the policy because the economy is a very large and complex thing. A small understanding (from looking at a small part of the picture) is not likely to be useful in comprehending or managing a large and complex thing.
IPA (Integrative Propositional Analysis) is an emerging methodology used to analyze the internal structure of conceptual systems such as theories, strategic plans, and policies. It is a rigorous, objective, and non-partisan approach. Many scholarly publications have shown the effectiveness of IPA. You may find these in the fields of policy, organizational learning, management, philosophy, and others. For an overview and background information, please see our white papers:
The low number of concepts indicates “missing ingredients” that may be necessary for success. Indeed, for every missing
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many linear statements (e.g. RP-9 & RP-10). These kinds of “linear” statements are like claiming there is only one way to get “from here to there.” A more effective map will show more options. More generally, the lack of causal connections between most concepts in the map creates problems for navigation. It is like trying to use a road map for navigation where the map shows mostly cities – with few connecting roads. This leaves the map open to illogical interpretations, illegitimate claims, spurious criticism, and confusing rhetoric. It may also suggests a lack of transparency. If a candidate claims the map is a good guide, but there are missing elements, it is difficult to accept that claim as valid.
ingredient, there is another opportunity for unanticipated consequences. There is only one “Transformative” concept (box with two causal arrows pointing at it). Therefore, the Depth of the map is equal to 0.06 (the result of one Transformative concept divided by 16 total concepts. “Zero” indicates the least level of Depth while a score of “one” indicates the greatest Depth. Depth is a strong indicator for policy success. With a Depth of 0.06, we do not expect that this policy will achieve its stated goals. Indeed, we expect far more unanticipated outcomes than anticipated ones.
For example, looking at the map, we see PR9- has nothing causing it. It does not explain how to generate “common sense” solutions. That is an important point because if common sense were easy to obtain, we would expect to see many policies that were much more effective. Instead, we have many arguments about what we should do.
IPA is a rigorous, scientific, non-partisan approach to analyzing the structure of policy maps to indicate their potential for success
On a more positive note, it is interesting that all of the concepts have causal connections to at least one other concept. This suggests that the map might be easily improved by finding additional causal connections and so identifying more Transformative concepts. As it stands, however, the one strength of the policy seems to be in its understanding of how to reduce the national debt (PR-2). However, it is not at all clear how to enact the changes “upstream.” It may be problematic to make RP-1, RP-3, and RP-4 occur. A weakness of the policy is the “silver bullet” thinking exhibited with RP-5 (Flat Tax). As presented, this one action would cause many benefits. However, the idea of “partial causality” tells us that no one thing is the sole cause of changes in another. There must be at least two causal factors. This kind of weakness in the policy is also seen in the
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Chance of achieving stated goals: About 6%
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Chance of unanticipated consequences: About 94%
Without those kinds of deeper understandings, the map cannot provide a useful understanding of a complex situation, or serve as a useful guide for resolving those issues.
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informed voting decisions by understanding the structure of maps.
Conclusion In this case study, we have presented a structural analysis of an economic policy. In this study, we have avoided partisan arguments around whether the policy might be “good” or “true.” Our sole concern is to understand the extent to which the author of the policy seems to understand our economic situation (as reflected in the text of the policy) and how that understanding relates to the potential for the policy to achieve its stated goals. In short, how useful the map may be as a tool for navigation. Without such analysis, it is more difficult for interested citizens to make informed decisions. IPA provides a scientific, nonpartisan source of policy analyses. The objective insights presented here will help to inform policy discussions and national level decision-making. There is a deep need for this kind of analysis as a new approach to resolving the frequent and divisive arguments that plague our decision making process.
Here, IPA also provides value as a path for voters and interest groups to combine multiple maps – to see what is missing from a map and add it in. The newer, integrated, map will help us all to understand more of the potential outcomes from the policy. And, importantly, such a process of collaborative mapping help to reduce divisive argumentation and support the greater collaboration needed to understand and resolve the great difficulties of our time. Better maps will also improve transparency and accountability by clarifying candidate’s understanding and anticipated actions to achieve success according to the policy. The Center for Scientific Analysis of Policy, LLC, is an independent research group of scholars and practitioners working in the Policy Analysis field and the STEM specialties (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics). We use our expertise in evaluating documents to determine if they are based on current knowledge and methodologies of those disciplines along with a deep understanding of how the law and policy intersects with social and cultural networks.
Our analysis shows that this is a weak policy. Its low level of Breadth and Depth indicates that implementing this policy would produce many unanticipated consequences while achieving few of the expected benefits. Further, because there are so few causal connections, spurious claims may be made about the efficacy or justification for policy action.
We present the results of our analyses in a clear, concise, and deliberately nonpartisan manner.
To improve its chance for successful implementation, the map should be expanded to include additional concepts and causal connections (to show how changes in each will cause changes in others) based on expert insight and empirical study. Policy maps with more Breadth and Depth will be more useful for elected officials to make successful policy decisions. The American people will be empowered to make more
By doing so, we hope to promote the adoption of sustainable and generative policies that have the greatest potential benefit to the people of America and the World, avoiding laws and policies that are profligate and injudicious. For more information, contact:
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