Tendências contemporâneas da política industrial no Brasil e no Mundo
Prof. Jackson De Toni
[email protected]
Brasília, 2014
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Prof. Jackson De Toni
In the next 20 years or so manufacturing will continue to be a source of good-quality jobs for developing and advanced economies
Advanced economies will recover some of the manufacturing jobs lost as the recession ends, re-shoring accelerates and investment picks up
Asia will continue to generate large amounts of employment although increasingly outside China (higher wages and capital intensity of production)
Growing consumer markets in Latin America, but especially in Africa, will provide significant opportunities for establishment and/or relocation of manufacturing activities and for employment generation
Prof. Jackson De Toni
Manufacturing remains important as a source of productivity growth and dynamism
Location within global supply chains offers opportunities for growth but critically low wages alone are unlikely to be the basis for sustained growth
Initiatives still needed to adapt and modify technology
Export markets are highly competitive but the rise of the BRICs offers new possibilities
Strong demand for skills and training and education remain priorities
Exchange rates must not be allowed to become uncompetitive
There will be many investment opportunities in energy saving
Prof. Jackson De Toni
Blurring demarcation between manufacturing and services and convergence between two sectors
A considerable share of value-added in goods is already coming from the services industry
"Additive manufacturing" and its impacts on manufacturing
Large potential to bring out considerable changes in traditional manufacturing
Growth of internet economy
Global penetration of internet and emergence of "big data"
Dissemination of Smartphone at a global level and creation of new eco-system incorporating products and services
Open, network-based type of innovation
Disruptive innovation increasingly tends to come from open mode of innovation
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Prof. Jackson De Toni
Many traditional manufacturing firms are expanding the business areas towards providing services and vice versa
A considerable share of value-added in goods is already coming from the services industry
Creation of new business opportunities through convergence of manufacturing and services (Ex: Smartphone and apps)
Increasing role of innovation in services and "non-technological innovation"
More and more service firms are involved in innovation activities, but the full scope and contents of service innovation is not captured adequately by statistics yet
Organizational and marketing innovation : non-technological aspects become increasingly important
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Prof. Jackson De Toni
Manufacturing needs to be more widely understood to include services activities without which the production of goods would simply not occur
Manufacturing in its broad sense still plays an important role in the process of economic growth and employment generation
Computing direct (formal and informal) jobs in manufacturing and jobs created in related sectors due to productive linkages, manufacturing accounted in 2009 for almost 500 million jobs
While advanced economies have lost jobs (approximately 25 million), emerging economies have created more than 70 million jobs
In identifying the employment potential of industries, also consider the productivity and indirect effect interactions
Prof. Jackson De Toni
Modern manufacturing sits within complex international industrial systems
Future is, by definition, uncertain, but some trends can already be discerned
There are no standard solutions – each country has unique capabilities and context
International experience can inform both context and content of policy making
New approaches are needed to develop manufacturing policies tailored to national needs
Remarkable Points (UNIDO)
Prof. Jackson De Toni
Future challenges & opportunities for manufacturing
Challenges
Better understanding of structure and dynamics of manufacturing
Systematic approaches to the design of manufacturing policies
Aligning policies with local context and capabilities
Opportunities
Enhanced used of global resources and capabilities
Exploitation of emerging technologies for improved productivity
Capturing value from from dynamic interacting value chains
Prof. Jackson De Toni
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Prof. Jackson De Toni
Distributed Manufacturing
Rapidly Responsive Manufacturing
Complex Manufacturing
Customised Manufacturing
Human-Centred Manufacturing
Sustainable Manufacturing
Innovation-Receptive Manufacturing
Enablers of future manufacturing competitiveness
Fonte: http://www.unido.org/
Emerging Science & Engineering Developments
Potentially disruptive science and engineering developments
Including:
Photonics
Biotechnology
Nanotechnology
Microtechnology
ICT in Manufacturing Systems
Advanced Materials
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McKinsey
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McKinsey
Obrigado !
Jackson De Toni
www.abdi.com.br
[email protected]
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Prof. Jackson De Toni
The case of "additive manufacturing" (e.g. 3D-printing)
New approach to the production of goods
Still available to limited areas of goods
Potential to lower the production cost and promote the customized production
Make to reconsider the issue of production location: from the labor cost factor to the proximity to the customers
The size of population connected to internet is increasing, especially in emerging economies
The focus is moving from the broadband to mobile internet with arrival of Smartphone
Big data
Made available thanks to the everyday use of internet search machine (such as Google) and the dissemination of SNS (Social Network Services)
Ggreat potential to identifying business
App economy
Combination of platform and software (apps)
New momentum for the re-emergence of internet economy
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Prof. Jackson De Toni
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Prof. Jackson De Toni
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What is new in the new industrial policy? A manufacturing systems perspective
Síntese & Pontos de atenção
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Adoção de uma noção mais moderna de indústria de transformação em torno do conceito de ecossistema
Os objetivos principais nas políticas industriais dos países avançados são: desenvolvimento de processos e tecnologia, sistemas industriais e conceitos de empresa inteligentes, avanços nas pesquisa das ciências e engenharias, produtos avançados
Distinguir as empresas domésticas nas políticas industriais (tamanho, tipo de produto/ serviços gerado, papel na cadeia de valor) - considerando a crescente intersecção entre os setores nas cadeias de valor globais
adaptado de IEDI
Prof. Jackson De Toni
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Reconhecimento das vantagens de se ter produção e inovação próximas espacialmente
Identificação das tecnologias novas e de alta prioridade, bem como os campos de pesquisa do futuro - por exemplo, indústria de transformação sustentável, tecnologias de produção e fabricação ecológica, simulação e modelagem, indústria de transformação aditiva, redes de produção responsivas
Fonte: IEDI
Síntese & Pontos de atenção
adaptado de IEDI
Prof. Jackson De Toni
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A importância das parcerias público-privadas (PPP) para endereçar alguns dos desafios em inovação da indústria
Promover a internacionalização de padrões tecnológicos domésticos como meio de vantagem competitiva
Participar da comunidade da indústria da transformação, sejam conferências, reuniões organizadas por stakeholders, discussões coletivas com diversas comunidades, participação em feiras e ventos de negócios, etc
Fonte: IEDI
Síntese & Pontos de atenção
adaptado de IEDI
Prof. Jackson De Toni
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Incentivar sempre a Ciência & Tecnologia nos diversos setores, posto que a pesquisa de qualidade e inovação efetiva estão na raiz do sucesso da indústria - especialmente quando se pretende aprofundar a criação de valor dos produtos e serviços
Proporcionar condições para a indústria de transformação solucionar desafios sociais futuros, por exemplo, em cuidados da saúde, mobilidade, mudança climática e sustentabilidade
Fonte: IEDI
Síntese & Pontos de atenção
adaptado de IEDI
Prof. Jackson De Toni
Increasing costs of R&D (resource constraints) and rapid pace of technological advances
Incorporation of customers early in the development process
Models of open innovation
Product platforming : Ex) Android OS
Idea competitions
Customer immersion : "User innovation" (ex: Linux)
Collaborative product design and development
Innovation networks : Involving incentive and reward scheme
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Prof. Jackson De Toni
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What is new in the new industrial policy? A manufacturing systems perspective
Prof. Jackson De Toni
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Institute for Manufacturing, Universidade de Cambridge (2013)
International approaches to understanding the future of manufacturing, Eoin O'Sullivan & Nicola Mitchell
What is new in the new industrial policy? A manufacturing systems perspective, O'Sullivan, Antonio Andreoni, Carlos López-Gómez, e Mike Gregory
Estudos recentes…
Prof. Jackson De Toni
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Cadeias globais de valor: onde queremos/podemos estar ?
Prof. Jackson De Toni
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What is new in the new industrial policy? A manufacturing systems perspective
Prof. Jackson De Toni
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Prof. Jackson De Toni
Debate em aula
Para debater: porque os países desenvolvidos querem a liberalização comercial dos serviços?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZKX-0SK41U#t=14
Novas tecnologias
http://youtu.be/4rOR-OheZvc
http://youtu.be/2wto6SFl13A
GVC do notebook Dell
http://youtu.be/owQzo82ac_M
http://youtu.be/paN8yAPO6Ls (Mariana Mazzucato)
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Prof. Jackson De Toni
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Prof. Jackson De Toni
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China leads by far followed by other Asian (Viet-Nam, Bangladesh, India and Thailand) and Latin American economies (Brazil and Mexico).
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Tendências da Industria
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Photonics. Including scanning, sensing and imaging; information, communication and networks; screens and displays; advanced lighting; photonic energy systems; and laser systems.
Biotechnology. Including biopharma; tissue engineering / regenerative medicine; synthetic biology; and bio-inspired manufacturing using self-assembly.
Nanotechnology. Including carbon nanotubes; nanocomposite structural materials; nanoelectronics; nanotechnology-based coatings; nanoparticles; and nano-tagging.
Microtechnology. Including microtooling (for replication) manufacturing and micro-systems in machine tools and products.
Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in Manufacturing Systems. Includingintelligent mechatronic systems for automation and robotics (e.g. self-adapting components), and advancement of grid computing for manufacturing.
Advanced Materials. Including advanced composites and 'metamaterials'.
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17/12/2014
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