The Japanese Dilemma: Challenges to Contemporary Japanese Foreign Policy

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CHALLENGES TO CONTEMPORARY JAPANESE FOREIGN POLICY Ｔｈｅ　Ｊａｐａｎｅｓｅ　Ｄｉｌｅｍｍａ Liubomir K. Topaloff, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Poli4cal Science School of Poli4cal Science and Economics Meiji University



Introduction - Recent Developments •  LDP came back to power in 2012 –  Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister again •  Briefly 2006 – 2007 •  He has won 3 elec4ons, and on July 10 – expected another

–  LDP’s ambi4ous ini4a4ves •  Abenomics – •  Revising role of Self-Defense Forces (SDF) •  Reinforcing Japan’s interna4onal status of big power

•  2010 – 2012 External shocks –  Dispute with China over Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands •  This resulted in burst of na4onalism. •  Abe proposed revision of pacifist doctrine

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Introduction – Need for Reforms •  Radical change to Japan’s security & defense policy since WWII. –  July 16, 2015 – allowing deployment of Japanese forces overseas. •  Including reinterpreta4on of Ar4cle 9 of Cons4tu4on

–  Shi` of Japan’s Foreign Policy since end of Cold War •  Caused by constant shi`ing of regional Balance of Power

–  Implica4ons for rela4ons with US, China (PRC), Taiwan, S. Korea, N. Korea and Russia.

What’s at Stake 1947 Cons4tu4onal Chart •  Inspired by US Cons4tu4on “We, the Japanese people ... Have determined to preserve our security and existence, trus:ng in the jus:ce and faith of the peace-loving peoples of the world.” [Preamble] “Aspiring sincerely to an interna:onal peace based on jus:ce and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the na:on and the threat or use of force as means of seCling interna:onal disputes. In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war poten:al, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.“ [Ar4cle 9] 2

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How to Explain the Changes? •  Deep causes –  End of Cold War •  US commitment to region under ques4on •  Japan failed to gain Int’l prominence

•  Intermediate causes –  Tensions with neighbors –  N.Korea 1998 sending ballis4c missile over Honshu

•  Precipita4ng cause

Three Op5ons to JFP 1.  Strategic partnership with US 2.  Regional coopera4on with China 3.  Become an independent power house center

–  China’s rise and domina4on –  US not commihed to Japan 100%

Japan’s FP - Review Factors influencing JFP •  Japan’s FP – always more pragma4c than ideological. Driven by: –  Fear for survival –  Desire to be among the leaders

•  Geography & Complex Regional Security framework –  Since WWII, JFP dictated by US alliance and USSR / China compe44on •  Bipolar compe44on (USSR replaced by China)

•  Domes4c Poli4cs –  Revival of lost glorious past –  Humilia4on from occupa4on & iden4ty as client state

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Challenges to Japan Today •  Interna4onal

–  End of Cold War and uncondi4onal US defense umbrella –  Rising China –  New US Pivot to Asia –  Reasser4ng Russia –  Regional hos4lity (both Koreas), etc.

•  Domes4c

–  Economic stagna4on, recession, and lack of growth –  The highest public debt in the world 240% of GDP –  Demographic collapse (decline of 1 mil people / year) –  Poli4cal indecisiveness –  lagging behind “interna4onaliza4on” of new genera4on, etc.

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Past Doctrines •  Yoshida Doctrine – 1951

–  Economic recovery –  Close coopera4on with the US with minimal possible military rearmament –  As Japan became 1st class world economy, a major dilemma appeared –  He insisted on prohibi4on on right of collec4ve selfdefense in the Cons4tu4on

•  Fukuda Doctrine – 1975

–  Use of war repara4ons as financial aid –  ODAs as means of diplomacy –  By early 1990s – obvious problems with ODAs

•  Koizumi Doctrine – 2002

-  Transforma4on of econ power into structural

Japan’s Latent Power and Its Limits –  The 3rd biggest economy in the world (GDP) –  The 10th most populous country in the world –  Islands (stopping power of water) •  Part of the islands belt that encircles China

–  Technology giant – capable of developing nuclear weapons and sophis4cated military equipment –  Nuclear power in wai4ng

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Japan’s Latent Power and Its Limits •  Regional Force in Disguise – Military budget is 7th in the world \5.09 trillion ($42 b.) – Japan Mari4me Self-Defense Force (JMSDF), est. 1952 •  48,000 personnel

•  The re-interpreta4on of the Cons4tu4on Ar4cle 9 – key to greater global asser4veness

Regional Challenges Economic challenge from emerging (neighboring) powers – China, South Korea, Vietnam, etc. –  Territorial and security challenges •  China and Taiwan on Senkaku Islands, Okonotori-shima (EEZ); •  Russia – Northern Territory (Koril) Islands; new military vessel from France; Reconstruc4on of Petropavlovsk mega-submarine base in Kamchatka Peninsula… •  South Korea – Takeshima (Dakdo) and Tsushima (claimed by S. Korea); name of Sea of Japan (日本海) as East Sea (東海), etc.

–  Rapid rise and aggressive asser4veness of China as a regional hegemon



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The Senkaku Islands Dispute

Where This Leaves Us Today? •  Japan faces the most significant revision of its foreign & security policy •  The main dilemma in front of Japanese FP: How to meet the challenges of the new post-post Cold War without depar8ng from its post-WWII self-imposed ban on the exercise of collec8ve selfdefense? Limited Op4ons a)  US alliance ; b) China alliance; c) Neither

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The Abe Doctrine •  The Official Take –  Freedom of ideas and informa4on –  Rule of Law (especially mari4me law) –  Free and open economic rela4ons –  Fostering inter-cultural and inter-genera4onal coop

•  The actual scope – na4onal revival –  Domes4c front – Abenomics •  fiscal s4mulus, monetary easing, structural reforms

–  Interna4onal front – “normaliza4on” of FP •  Deeper military coopera4on with US and asser4on •  Behaving like a Western country

Abe’s Security & Defense Program 1.  Restora4on of Japan as a world power –  He envisions a role of regional balancer for Japan –  Educa4on is the key •  • 

Globaliza4on (English) Patrio4sm

2. Security Reforms -  Established Na4onal Security Council (2013) -  State Secrecy law (Dec. 2013) -  Revised Guidelines of US-Jap Coopera4on -  New Na4onal Security Strategy (Dec. 2013) -  “ac4ve pacifism based on interna4onal coopera4on”

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Abe’s Reforms (cont.) 5. Revision of Na4onal Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG) 6. Li` the Ban on Arms Exports 7. Increase of the Defense Budget 8. Push for the new “Collec4ve Self Defense” (CSD) –  2006-7 Council on the Reconstruc4on of Legal Basis for Security –  2014 Report – Ban on CSD abandoned altogether –  LDP and Komeito posed 3 condi4ons: •  Ahack on other na4on posed threat to Japan •  No alterna4ve ac4on plan •  Use of force limited to minimum necessary



Japan’s Alliance with US •  US played a central role in post-WWII JFP –  Occupied Japan a`er WWII and wrote Cons4tu4on –  Most important trading partner un4l recently

•  Military Alliance framework –  1960 Mutual Coopera4on and Security Treaty –  Military coopera4on is governed by the “Guidelines for US-Japan Defense Coopera4on” •  Updated on April 28, 2015 “Joint Vision Statement”



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The Guidelines Evolution •  Japan as Ally of US – must become more ac4ve •  Updated Guidelines in the post-post Cold War –  2010

•  reaffirmed Japan’s peaceful role •  Nuclear deterrence under US nuclear umbrella •  Acknowledges that Japan “…currently faces no serious threat of being invaded” but warn against risk of escala4on of disputes

–  2014 – four new key features: •  Firm US commitment to “prevent the deteriora4on of Japan’s security” with regard to China’s rise •  Pledge for coopera4on in space and cyber security. •  Japan assigned addi4onal du4es and military responsibili4es •  US-Japanese military coopera4on extended to undefined “areas surrounding Japan”　日本周辺

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Japan as a Buffer State •  Japan is a buffer state since end of WWII –  Old buffer state model: •  Military subordina4on •  Economic revival •  Poli4cal dependency

–  New buffer state model: •  Military revival •  Economic subordina4on •  Poli4cal dependency

Preserving the Golden Rule of Japanese Poli4cs: Whoever has strong rela5ons with US, will have strong Administra5on

QUESTIONS? …… Thank You

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