Fifth Annual Meeting of the European Chaos and Complexity in Organisations Network ECCON "Mennorode", Elspeet, The Netherlands, 21-22 October 2005 Session Convenor: Dr. Frans M. van Eijnatten
Vulnerability Profiling in Complex Technological Systems: Assessing System Integrity from a Complexity Perspective Joop F.L.M. Brukx & Ger L. Wackers Webster University Leiden, School of Business and Technology, The Netherlands; Syntelligens, Zwijndrecht, The Netherlands, E-mail:
[email protected] University of Maastricht, Department of Technology and Society Studies, The Netherlands, E-mail:
[email protected]
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Extended Abstract For organisms and organisations, the edge of chaos, is the regime in which you would want them to be. The edge of chaos is associated with adaptability and learning, with creativity and innovation. It combines novelty and change with sufficient memory to learn from and exploit results of explorations of adjacent possibilities; of explorative uphill searches on fitness landscapes. Complexity thinking is a useful approach in trying to understand how organisations, on different levels of aggregation, optimize performative capabilities. Optimising performative capabilities also has a paradoxical downside to it: it may induce new vulnerabilities as well. The concept of vulnerability refers to a system’s reduced ability to anticipate, resist, cope with or recover from ‘events’ that threaten the achievement or maintenance of performative closure (functional system integrity). It is condition rather than outcome oriented. The authors have used notions from complexity theories to understand sudden and often unexpected failures in functional integrity of complex technological systems. Their findings are based on the analysis of large scale accidents in industrial installations (offshore oil and gas production, commercial offshore helicopter transport). See bibliography. Focussing on emergent vulnerabilities that were induced by performance optimising adaptive processes at various levels of aggregation in the involved companies, these studies amounted to an activity that could be called ‘retrospective Vulnerability Profiling’. The question addressed in this paper is whether it is possible for organisations, in particular for companies responsible for the design, operation and maintenance of high-risk technologies, to devise a ‘pro-active’ approach to Vulnerability Profiling using the complexity perspective for selfmonitoring of the emergence of system vulnerabilities? What would such an approach look like? And how would it be different from traditional approaches to quantitative risk assessment and to system integrity management (i.e. risk based inspection, reliability centered maintenance)?
References Wackers, G. (2001). ‘Helikopters in de Offshore-Industrie in de Noordzee’. In: Graef, M.R. de. (Red.), Betrouwbaarheid van Technische Systemen. Anticiperen op Trends (pp. 286305). Den Haag: Stichting Toekomstbeeld der Techniek, in Dutch. Brukx, J.F.L.M. & Wackers, G. (2001). ‘De Complexiteitsparadox: Over Mechanische en Adaptieve Systemen’. In: Graef, M.R. de (Red.), Betrouwbaarheid van Technische Systemen. Anticiperen op Trends (pp. 86-100). Den Haag: Stichting Toekomstbeeld der Techniek, in Dutch. Wackers, G. & Kørte, J. (2003). Drift and Vulnerability in a Complex Technical System: Reliability of Condition Monitoring Systems in North Sea Offshore Helicopter Transport. International Journal of Engineering Education 19 (1), 192-205. Also published in: Kørte, J. (Ed.) (2003), Contributions to Accident Risk Decision Making. Methods and Cases from Helicopter Operation and Maintenance (pp. 147-176). Stavanger: HIS/ Stavanger University College. Wackers, G. (2004). Resonating Cultures. Engineering Optimization in the Design and Failure of the (1991) Loss of the Sleipner A GBS. Research Report no. 32/ 2004. Oslo: Unipub Forlag/ Center for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo. Wackers, G.L. (2004). ‘Onvervulde Beloften: Over de Betrouwbaarheid van Intelligente Conditiebewakingssystemen: Een Voorbeeld. Onderhoudsmanagement. Handboek voor Verantwoordelijken voor en Betrokkenen bij de Technische Functie binnen Organisaties. Alphen aan den Rijn: Kluwer. Voorburg: Nederlandse Vereniging voor Doelmatig Onderhoud, D4040-D4040-29, in Dutch.
Authors’ Full Coordinates Joop F.L.M. Brukx Syntelligens Laan van Nederhoven 96 3334 BN Zwijndrecht The Netherlands E-mail:
[email protected] Webster University Leiden, School of Business and Technology, The Netherlands & Ger L. Wackers University of Maastricht Department of Technology and Society Studies P.O.- Box 616 6200 MD Maastricht The Netherlands E-mail:
[email protected]
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