ANALYSIS OF GEOSPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF FLOODS AS NATURAL EMERGENCIES

  HI?F A

$5]/% @%0/5$0@%5/0/(J0/%$ %5%%$0J5@@ @$-/@ ("374&, 2242'"&'  !- ) 31 Academy of Criminalistic and Police studies, Belgrade AbstractV +00-2 "2 71-#0+0,43"+ (*(#,(&34(2) (=(#1 -"1 4&3#("24&,+1 '7#("'(& '7( 2"5('1 05 ;(0;+( "&- '7(4# ;#0;(#'1? 2 2$37) '7(1 4&'(&2(+1 "''#"3' '7( "''(&'40& 05 #(2("#37(#2 4& '7( R(+- 05 ,(02;"'4"+) '(37&43"+) &"'$#"+) 4&50#*"'40& "&- 0'7(# 234(&3(2) @$' "+20 (P;(#'2 4& '7( R(+- 05 (*(#,(&31 O70 O"&' '0 @(''(# $&-(#2'"&- 4'? ("#4&, 4& *4&- '7"' '742 42 " *"22 ;7(&0*(&0&) O7437 30&242'2 05 *$+'4;+( $&4'2) *02' ;#(5(##(- *('70- 05 234(&'4R3 #(2("#37 "&- -#"O4&, 30&3+$240&2 "@0$' '7( ;7(&0*(&0+0,1 05 l00- 42 " 2'"'42'43"+ *('70-? $4-(- @1 '742 5"3') '7( 2$@>(3' 05 '742 ;";(# 42 " -(23#4;'4=( 2'"'42'43"+ "&"+1242 05 ,(02;"'4"+ "&- '(*;0#"+ -42'#4@$'40& 05 l00- 4& ;(#40- 5#0*  BB $&'4+ ABH "' '7( ,+0@"+ +(=(+? 7(#(@1) " 2'"'42'43"+ 2'$-1 O"2 30&-$3'(- 4& 2$37 " O"1 '7"' 4& '7( R#2' 2'(; 4' O"2 '":(& #"O .$&;#03(22(-/ -"'" 4& 50#*"' 05 P3(+ R+( 5#0* '7( 4&'(#&"'40&"+ -"'"@"2( 0& -42"2'(#2 . / 4& #$22(+2) O7437 O(#( '7(& "&"+1K(- 4& '7( 2'"'42'43"+  -"'" ;#03(224&,? ") "-#") '4#4/? & ;#4+ ABBI) '7( 24*$+'"&(0$2 *(+'4&, 2&0O "&- 4&'(&2( #"4&5"++ 3"$2(- '7( l00-4&, 05 '7( "*42) 42K" "&- "&$@( #4=(#2) #4,7' '#4@$'"#1 05 '7( #4&" "&- 0$'7 0#"="? 4+0>:0=4C) ?) +"M"&) ?V ;% %  0+ #%#  %%({%*  %% + ? (K@(-&02') ("# ) kABB?) 2'#? FI? B "#+(&() ?) "#*437"(+) ?V Notable Natural Disasters. "+450#&4"V "+(* #(22) &3) ABBF?) AA?  37$*"&&) ?V '# ;## ##+  & * + 7 037$*) (#*"&1V ;#4&,(#) ABB?) EH?

           ??? HFH '7(1 ="+$(?12 7(1 3"& @( 3"$2(- @1 3+4*"'43 30&-4'40&2 "&- 5"3'0#2?H +4*"'43 30&-4'40&2 4&3+$-( 7("=1 #"4&2 5#0* '#0;43"+ 2'0#*2 "&- 7$##43"&(2) 2(=(#( '7$&-(#2'0#*2) 313+0&(2) 5#0&'"+ O4&-2) #";4- *(+'4&, 05 2&0O "&- 43(? +4*"'43 5"3'0#2 30&242' 05 '4-(2 "&- 2'0#*2 4& 30"2'"+ "#("2? '7(# 5"3'0#2 '7"' 3"& 3"$2( l00-2 7"=( ("#'7S$":(2) +"&-2+4-(2 "&- -"* 5"4+$#(2? 0&-4'40&2 O7437 4&3#("2( l00-4&, 4&3+$-( RP(- @"24& 37"#"3'(#42'432 2$37 "2 24K() 27";(2) 2+0;() "&- (+(="'40&? "#4"@+( 37"#"3'(#42'432 05 '7( @"24& "#( O"'(# 2'0#",( 3";"34'1 "&- ;0#'"@4+4'1 4& 204+ "&- #03:2) 204+ 4&R+'#"'40& #"'( "&- (P'(&' 05 O('+"&-2 "&- +":(2? 7"&&(+ 37"#"3'(#42'432 2$37 "2 +(&,'7) 2+0;() #0$,7&(22 "&- 27";() 3"& "+20 (&7"&3( '7( l00-) "2 3"& '7( 7$*"& (55(3'2 05 #4=(# #(,$+"'40&V >04&' $2( 05 ,#0$&-O"'(#) '#"&25(# "*0&, O"'(#27(-2) O"2'(O"'(# -4237"#,() O"'(# -4=(#240& "&- 4##4,"'40&) $#@"&4K"'40&) -"*2 "&- +"&- -#"4&",(? (&(#"++1) '7(#( "#( '7( 50++0O4&, '1;(2 05 l00-2V l00-2 3"$2(- @1 #"4& "&- *(+'4&, 2&0O) 431 l00-2j l00-4&, -$( '0 '7( 304&34-(&3( 05 74,7 O"'(# +(=(+2) l"27 l00-2) "&- l00-2 3"$2(- +"&-2+4-(2) l00-2 3"$2(- @1 -"* 5"4+$#() ('3? (3"$2( 05 "& "@4+4'1 05 " l00- '0 3"$2( " +0' 05 -"*",( '0 7$*"& 7("+'7) *"'(#4"+ "&- 3$+'$#"+ #(20$#3(2 "&- '7( (&=4#0&*(&') :&0O+(-,( 05 3"$2(2) 5#(S$(&31) #(,$+"#4'4(2 05 ,(02;"'4"+ "&- '(*;0#"+ -42'#4@$'40& "&- '7( ;0224@4+4'1 05 '7( #('$#& 05 '7(2( ;7(&0*(&" O0$+- @( =(#1 $2(5$+ 50# l00- 30&'#0+) "&- 50# '7( 0#,"&4K"'40& "&- 4*;+(*(&'"'40& 05 ;#0'(3'40& "&- #(23$( *("2$#(2 @"2(- 0& '7( 30&3(;' 05 "->$2'*(&' '0 l00- #42:?E ' 42) '7(#(50#() 71-#0+0,42'2 $2( 2'"'42'43"+ *('70-2 50# 3"+3$+"'4&, "$'70#4'"'4=( ;#0@"@4+4'1 05 74,7 O"'(#) 0# 4& 0#-(# '0 ,(' "& "22(22*(&' 05 '7( ;#0@"@4+4'1 '7"' " l00- 05 " 3(#'"4& 24K( O4++ 7";;(& 4& " ,4=(& 1("#) 0&( 4& " 7$&-#(-) R=( 7$&-#(- 0# '70$2"&-?I 4&3( '742 42 " #("++1 (P'(&24=( *"''(#) '7( 2$@>(3' 05 '742 O0#: O4++ @( "&"+1242 05 50#*2 05 (P;#(2240&) &$*@(#) '(*;0#"+ "&- ,(02;"'4"+ -42'#4@$'40& 05 l00-2 0&+1? 7(&0*(&0+0,1 05 0'7(# '1;(2 05 &"'$#"+ (*(#,(&34(2 O4++ @( '7( 2$@>(3' 05 5$'$#( #(2("#37?

METHODS 7( 2$#=(1 O"2 30&-$3'(- @"2(- 0& (P'(&24=( *"'(#4"+ 05 '7( (&'#( 50# (2("#37 0& '7( ;4-(*40+0,1 05 42"2'(#2 . /? ' O"2 #("+4K(- 4& 2$37 O"1) "2 4& '7( R#2' 2'(; '7( #"O X $&;#03(22(- -"'" 4& 50#*"' 05 (P3(+ R+( O4'7 AI)IIA #(,42'(#(- (=(&'2) O(#( '":(& 5#0* '7( 3(&'(# .OOO?(*-"'?@(/? 16 7( -0O&+0"- 42 *"-( Ik!kABH? $@2(S$(&'+1) '7( -"'" O(#( ;#03(22(- @1 '7( ;#0,#"* 50# 2'"'42'43"+ "&"+1242 05 -"'")   -="&3(- '"'42'432 AB?B? #(S$(&34(2 "&- ;(#3(&'",(2 05 '7( 30&24-(#(- ="#4"@+(2 O(#( 3"+3$+"'(- @1 ;#0,#"* 0;(#"'40&2? +20) '"@+(2 "&- 37"#'2 O(#( *"-( @1 '7( ;#0,#"* *"-() O7437 O(#( 5$#'7(# ;#03(22(- 4&)  $#(-) 70*(+(22 "&- "55(3'(-) '7( '0'"+ -"*",( 9 " ,+0@"+ ;43'$#( 05 '7( (30&0*43 4*;"3' 05 l00-4&,) ,4=(& 4& ?? -0++"#2?

A '0+'*"&) ?) 4&-2'0&) ?) (37"&0) ?V International Perspectives on Natural Disasters: Occurrence,

&*  :0=4C) ?) +"M"&) ?V IstoV 2'#? FA? I "0) ?) "*(-) ?V Flood frequvencyanal analysis. '(()9>>

 L    u />$'& '99$9 />''5 )>5'& &99)>'> '////9

 L    1 9$/)/$5&/ &()/9)>)$ >5)9/5( )(&/'&/& $'&/)$''$) &'>>>$9'95

 1

=  ('('$)> $')&(//> 5'//&5& 0 )(&)>/ &&9//59

5'(>/()( 360387067 9(9)('($5 )/)&$9> $'&9>/)>9 &)5)5()/

   MvN 59//9&/$> '//'$&9)/ /((((&($/ 460264 $99>'>(5 '(>9($')'/

( 57   …# ## #  % +5W44345L7$  91&|; 9  ;„

  

24

2

(L(>



226

5L'

(L)5

( 37    + *  #  % +5W44345L##.  ( +  #( 7$ 91&|; 9  ;„"+:0=4C) ?V Spatial and Temporal distribution of geophysical disasters? (#@4"&

3"-(*1 05 34(&3(2 "&- #'2 "&- (0,#";743"+ &2'4'$'( 0="& =4>43) 0$#&"+ 05 '7( (0,#";743"+ &2'4'$'( 0="& =4>4CQQ !HkH) ;;? HE!?

           ??? HFI

* 57$   # j  #  + *  #% %  % +5W44 345L7$ 91&|; 9  ;„>)

50557

'')$9

)'''$5&

)('&5

&'/)>5

$>&($)5

)$& 3427 (&$ 258 5&&

208047 &'5)$5 5$5 (> &5>95>

88300 2438303 '9/ 5$ 2634446

>'9$())$ >'>()>599 23873756 //>'5 >59//>$)/5

9&&)/' '&>>(>95 3835628 /$)9( 9>9''9&)

9/)>&/) >99(>9'5 /99>()> /&$>9/ 9('>''&

)')&(55( 9//)/)9)( //(>'9/5 /5)'$9'( 5&(&($>

( L7    +(  +%#¢#% % +5W44345L # (  #7$ 91&|; 9  ;„