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UNIVERSITY OF TECHNICAL EDUCATION BTEC HND IN BUSINESS (MANAGEMENT) ASSIGNMENT COVER SHEET NAME OF STUDENT REGISTRATION NO. UNIT TITLE UNIT CODE ASSIGNMENT TITLE ASSIGNMENT NO NAME OF ASSESSOR ISSUE DATE SUBMISSION DEADLINE

Unit 6: Business Decision Making D/601/0578 Forecasting Techniques and Business Decisions 2 of 2 Tran Vinh 02 Dec 2014 23 Dec 2014 (10:00 AM)

I, __________________________ hereby confirm that this assignment is my own work and not copied or plagiarized from any source. I have referenced the sources from which information is obtained by me for this assignment.

________________________________

_________________________

Signature

Date

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FOR OFFICIAL USE Assignment Received By:

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Unit Outcomes Outcome

Evidence for the criteria

Feedback

Assessor’s decision First attempt

Be able to produce information in appropriate formats for decision making in an organisation al context LO3

Be able to use software generated information to make decisions in an organisation

Produce graphs using spreadsheets and draw valid conclusions based on the information derived

3.1

Create trend lines in spreadsheet graphs to assist in forecasting for specified business information

3.2

Prepare a business presentation using suitable software and techniques to disseminate information effectively

3.3

Produce a formal business report

3.4

Use appropriate information processing tools

4.1

Prepare a project plan for an activity and determine the critical path

4.2

Use financial tools for decision making

4.3

LO4

Merit grades awarded

M1

M2

M3

Distinction grades awarded

D1

D2

D3

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Rework

Internal Verification

Outcome

Evidence for the criteria

Feedback

Assessor’s decision

Internal Verification

Assignment ( ) Well-structured; Reference is done properly / should be done (if any)

Overall, you’ve

Areas for improvement:

ASSESSOR SIGNATURE

DATE

/

/

DATE

/

/

NAME:..........................................................................................

(Oral feedback was also provided) STUDENT SIGNATURE

NAME : .............................................................................. FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY VERIFIED YES NO DATE

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VERIFIED BY : ........................................................................... NAME

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SCENARIO

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1. Forecasting Techniques SC JOHNSON started in 1886 as a parquet flooring company, SC Johnson is one of the world’s leading makers of household products like Pledge®, OFF®, Mr. Muscle® and Glade®. We make homes better for families. We’re a 128-year-old family company, and our trusted products can be found in homes around the globe. SC JOHNSON employs nearly 13,000 people globally and generates $9 billion in sales. Our company is still headquartered in Racine, Wisconsin, where it was founded. We have operations in more than 70 countries and sell products in virtually every country around the world. At the same time, we’ve established a generations-long legacy of environmental responsibility, community leadership and providing great places to work. We do this because we want to do what’s right for our business today, and also what’s right for people and the planet tomorrow. Our product portfolio includes global brands such as Pledge®, Duck®, Mr. Muscle®, Windex®, Scrubbing Bubbles®, Glade®, Raid®, OFF!®, Baygon® and Ziploc®. Mr Michel, Sales Director of SC JOHNSON Vietnam, wishes to take stock of the company’s position with respect to sales of home care category. You are employed as the company’s Sales Manager and he has called on you to conduct an analysis of the last 6 years’ sales of home care category, which were as follows (in $000’s)

Quarterly sales, in £1,000s

Quarter

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

1

500

450

350

550

550

750

2

350

350

200

350

400

500

3

250

200

150

250

350

400

4

400

300

400

550

600

650

Note that, the company financial year ends on 31st December

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Tasks: •

Produce graphs using spread sheets and draw valid conclusions based on the information derived. Create trend lines in spread sheet graphs to assist in forecasting for specified business information given above

(3.1, 3.2)

Hints: Enter the above sales figures into a computer spread sheet, and then enter suitable formulae in the spread sheet calculates all the figures required to make a time series analysis of the data including forecasts for the financial year 2014. Mr Michel has asked you to do this using least squares regression method and both the additive model and the proportional model. Produce graphs using spread sheets and draw valid conclusions based on the information derived. •

Prepare a sales presentation material using suitable software and techniques to disseminate information effectively and persuasively. Write a business report to Mr Michel, summarizing your sales forecasts for the year 2014 using each of three methods; commenting on the reliability of your forecast sales figures for the year 2014, suggesting which method is likely to be more reliable. (Attach presentation material at the end of the above report) (3.3, 3.4)

2. Management Information Systems

SC

JOHNSON

has

Production/Manufacture,

the

various

functional

departments

such

as

Transportation, Marketing and Sales, Finance and

Personnel and so on. At present company relies on paper-driven systems – but it is considering introducing a comprehensive computerised system for its Management Information Systems (MIS). In the light of the three categories of management information – strategic, tactical and operational; and considering both internal and external information for decision making requirement, you are required to: •

Use appropriate information processing tools for SC JOHNSON (4.1)

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3. Project Plan SC JOHNSON has decided to open a show room, they defined the work as a project with the following activities and dependencies in the below table. Mr Michel asked you to draw the network for the project and do the relevant analysis.

Preceding

Activity

Duration (Weeks)

A

5

-

B

3

-

C

3

B

D

7

A

E

10

B

F

14

A, C

G

7

D, E

H

4

E

I

5

D

Activity

Task: You are required to: •

Prepare a project plan for an activity and determine the critical path based on information given above

(4.2)

4. Investment Appraisal Techniques SC JOHNSON has some capital available for investment and is considering two projects, only one of which can be financed. The details are as follows: Project 1

Project 2

5

5

£000

£000

700

700

-

-

Year 1

100

450

Year 2

400

150

Year 3

300

100

Year 4

100

50

Expected life (years)

Initial cost Expected net cash flows

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Year 5 Residential value

40

50

Nil

Nil

Tasks: •

Use financial tools for decision making such as NPV and IRR methods to evaluate the viability of proposed investments. Please note that, company will not invest if discount rate is lower that 10%

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(4.3)

Note: Write a report which must include the following: •

Demonstrate all the tasks and tested assessment criteria in the assignment

•

Use appropriate application software such as spread sheets, presentation, and word-processing packages;

•

If suitable use appropriate project management software would also be useful;

•

Start each task an appropriate headings and sub-headings;

•

Have well-summarized findings of the investigation. Include conclusions and recommendations against each tasks;

•

You must be submitted as hard copies and in electronic form (CD) for checking.

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GRADING Pass

is achieved by meeting all the requirements defined in the assessment criteria. (Refer page 2 of the assignment brief)

Merit

Identify and apply strategies to find appropriate solutions

(M1)

Characteristics / Possible Evidence – Relevant theories and techniques have been applied for using of line, pie, bar charts, histograms, trend charts, scatter diagram (3.1), forecasting (3.2) etc. Justified, or the chosen business organisation. Select/design and apply appropriate methods/techniques

(M2)

Characteristics / Possible Evidence – the design of techniques for project plan such as network diagram and Gantt chart to identify critical path and cost for the given project (4.2), financial tools (4.3) and also effective judgments have been arrived. Present and communicate appropriate findings

(M3)

Characteristics / Possible Evidence – report shows a logical structure with clearly presented data and explained the result has been found and sections related to chosen business problems. Present data using spreadsheet and financial figures through software techniques e.g. tables, trend lines, NPV, discount factor, payback, etc.

Distinction Use critical reflection to evaluate own work and justify valid conclusions (D1) Characteristics / Possible Evidence – synthesis has been used to generate and justify valid conclusions to project plan and also valid business decision arrived using of financial tools such as NPV and IRR

Take responsibility for managing and organising activities

(D2)

Characteristics / Possible Evidence – ability to show with evidence the areas of substantial activities have been planned, managed, organised and independence demonstrated based on business given above. Demonstrate convergent/lateral/creative thinking

(D3)

Characteristics / Possible Evidence – problems have been solved, selfevaluation has taken place and innovation and creative thought have been applied throughout the outcomes such as: valid conclusion, forecasting, presenting the finding, business report, project plan and IRR and NPV.

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PRESENTATION 1. The assignment should have a cover page that includes the assignment title, assignment number, course title, module title, Lecturer/tutor name and student’s name. Attach all the pages of assignment brief/cover sheet with your report and leave them blank for official use. 2. Ensure that authenticity declaration has been signed. 3. This is an individual assignment. 4. Content sheet with a list of all headings and page numbers. 5. A fully typed up professionally presented report document. Use 12 point Arial or Times New Roman script. 6. Your assignment should be word-processed. Charts, tables, graphs are not included in the word count. A CD should be included with references and accompanying notes. 7. Use the Harvard referencing system. 8. Exhibits/appendices are outside this limit. 9. The assignment should be not contain a bibliography – but should contain a list of any references used in the assignment. NOTES TO STUDENTS FOR SUMMISSION •

Check carefully the submission date and the instructions given with the assignment. Late assignments will not be accepted.

•

Ensure that you give yourself enough time to complete the assignment by the due date.

•

Do not leave things such as printing to the last minute – excuses of this nature will not be accepted for failure to hand-in the work on time.

•

You must take responsibility for managing your own time effectively.

•

If you are unable to hand in your assignment on time and have valid reasons such as illness, you may apply (in writing) for an extension.

•

Failure to achieve a PASS grade will results in a REFERRAL grade being given.

•

Take great care that if you use other people’s work or ideas in your assignment, you properly reference them in your text and any bibliography.

•

NOTE: If you are caught plagiarizing, the University policies and procedures will apply.

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