Iran’s nuclear program: a diplomatic challenge
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Iran’s nuclear program: a diplomatic challenge Diplomacy is once again proving itself to be the best option in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program. There are many reasons to justify this claim; two are central: First, the political atmosphere in Iran has changed. This is the first time since President Mohammad Khatami took office that Iran has opened up to the west, seeking to negotiate. This development has internal reasons, too: with sanctions imposed on Iran, its economy is under significant pressure. In order to maintain its legitimacy after the catastrophic 2008 election, the Iranian government has no other option but to demonstrate progress to its people. Second, from the West’s side of the story, one can see that, despite the fact that there is a huge division in USA between the Democrats and Republicans, they know that a military strike is not a viable option. The US cannot afford another war; it is in the West’s and the US’ best interest to negotiate, despite three decades of Iranian resistance and hostility. They are aware that Iran still is the fourth largest oil exporter and plays an important role in the Middle East, in terms of geopolitical concerns. This essay provides a chronological overview of Iran’s nuclear program followed by a more detailed explanation of two core arguments which suggest that the diplomacy now has an opportunity to be effective in resolving this situation. Counter arguments which suggest that negotiations are useless and diplomacy is not the best bet are considered, after which a conclusion is drawn and a
Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge prediction is made regarding the future of the ongoing talks, despite the matter still evolving and providing new challenges and surprises nearly daily. Iran’s nuclear program has had a roller-‐coaster history with many ups and downs. Cancelled after the 1979 revolution in Iran, the program was resurrected late during the ten-‐year war which Iran fought to a stalemate with Iraq. Iran felt that it required a deterrent and defense to Iraq’s repeated use of chemical weapons and other such “surprises”.i Iran portrays the international pressure to suspend its uranium enrichment activities as outside interference intended to keep Iran lagging in such endeavors and depriving it of rights permitted under the Nuclear Non-‐Proliferation Treaty. Utilizing such characterizations and appeals to nationalism, Tehran has effectively parlayed the prolonged crisis to encourage enthusiasm and support for the regime and to keep the revolutionary fervor stoked and mobilized. In this profound sense, the nuclear issue has become the hallmark and the political reason for existence of the regime itself. Overviewii Iran’s nuclear program is a major political issue both within Iran and between Iran and the international community arrayed against it. This is the case despite the fact that the details of the program have been kept mostly secret. Iran touts the program as a path to acquire peaceful nuclear energy, which is required by a population which has doubled since the 1979 revolution. The theocrat leadership insists that it is not developing a capability to produce nuclear
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge weapons. Such denials are doubted because, at the same time, the Iranian leadership boasts about Iran’s advancing uranium enrichment capabilities, which can be used to develop weapons. So long as Russia provides fuel for the reactor which it built in Bushehr, Iran does not require its own enrichment capability. However, Russia may become an unreliable supplier at some time in the future. Iran contends that it possesses the right to enrich uranium because it is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-‐Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Since it will be required to construct more reactors, it wishes to assure a reliable supply of fuel which is not dependent upon foreign nations which may have their own agendas. Beginning in 2002, international distrust regarding Iran’s intentions has been exacerbated by revelations that Iran has built secret facilities which contain the capability to supply a nuclear weapons program. Since the Islamic Republic of Iran admitted that such facilities do, indeed, exist, only after such revelations have gained credibility, the distrust has become overwhelming. Iran has still not provided full details which are acceptable to the International Atomic Energy Agency, as required by the NPT. It is generally felt that Iran has been working toward a secret nuclear capability for several reasons, ranging from its experience during the Iran-‐Iraq War to the fact of geography that five of the nine acknowledged nuclear powers in the world are on Iran’s borders, or within easy striking distance. Although exact details are difficult to ascertain, Iran appears to be following a strategy of nuclear hedging:
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge maintaining the option of developing a nuclear weapons program, while remaining within the strictures of the NPT. The revelations about Iran’s secret facilities from 2002 to 2009 and the resultant pressure – most notably, economic sanctions – have created a major political issue in Iran regarding its nuclear ambitions. Following disputed presidential elections in 2009 which featured Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s internal politics pit the hardline regime against conservatives and the Green Movement opposition, in respect of the nuclear program. Program’s evolutioniii The Iran nuclear program began as an attempt to become self-‐reliant in energy and technology during the 1980s. Finding itself increasingly isolated as it struggled to acquire arms to fight the war with Iraq, which was the Middle East’s bloodiest modern conflict and in which Iraq used chemical weapons and had a reputed nuclear weapons program, the Iran nuclear program’s direction toward weapons capability was one significant result of this experience as the program was widened to include the capability to manufacture weapons-‐grade uranium and the ability to develop systems which could deliver the nuclear weapons to the enemy. Iran has long pursued nuclear technology as a key to industrial development and as a means of reasserting its position as a center of scientific advances. The Iran nuclear program is considered by some to also have been a conduit of the Islamic revolution’s continued need for legitimacy, driven by Iran’s nationalistic desire
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge to gain respect in the international community. The theocracy appears to have hardened its stance in response to the perception that the international community is denying Iran the right it has to pursue this technology, discriminating against Iran despite the fact that – unlike Israel, Pakistan and India – Iran has signed the global treaty on non-‐proliferation. The regime in Tehran sees the attempted dictates of the international community as an attack on a founding principle of the revolution, which is asserting Iran’s independence from outside influence and intervention. Nuclear politicsiv Iran’s nuclear program unfolded in the context of the internal and external politics described above. Since the 1979 revolution, Iran’s political elite has been divided over how the theocracy should evolve and what international role it should pursue. Consensus has not been achieved and the country remains divided regarding hot-‐button political issues surrounding independence, self-‐ reliance and social justice. The most vexing differences revolve around the question of whether Iran should continue as a revolutionary state willing to defy the world, or whether it should soften the rhetoric and actions to become a state which respects and abides by international norms. The debate over the nuclear program is representative of these opposing directions. During the nuclear program’s incipient period, there was general consensus among the political elite about the need for the program and Iran’s right to pursue it. However, the consensus appeared to be crumbling as early as 2005. Rival factions in Iran’s complicated political structure began to question the costs
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge of the program and its criticality to Iran’s development. At this point, the nuclear program became an internal political issue. The nuclear program initially had the support of the broader public, due to its goal of energy independence and other scientific initiatives. Much of the program’s public support emanated from the regime’s portrayal of it as an assertion of Iran’s rights despite foreign interference and bullying. However, the program has not been detailed to the extent that there can be properly informed public political debate and consideration of its true direction, costs and effects upon other issues within Iran and vis a vis Iran and the international community. Why is diplomacy the best bet? In this case, we see clearly a shift in that diplomacy is occurring in the open media from both sides, taking place on a multilateral basis involving various countries. It appears to be working because we can see that the power is not solely political in the hands of the elites but, rather, professional diplomats are working together to solve such a challenging case, one of the more vexing in the history of diplomacy. v As postulated in the introduction to this essay, it appears that diplomacy is working and that the reasons emanate from both sides of the table: Let us begin with Iran. What has brought Iran to the table? First, Iran owes its progress in the negotiations to newly elected President Hassan Rouhani, who has
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge promised the people to bring an end to Iran’s isolation from the international arena. This is due to the consequences of the Green Revolution in 2008, which led the Iranian public to turn away from the regime, putting its legitimacy into question. Then-‐President Ahmadinejad, as well as the Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were too conservative in their approach to US President Obama’s offer. Their failed diplomatic moves caused crushing sanctions to be brought upon Iran, hurting its economy. Rouhani is the first President of Iran to actually have a one-‐on-‐one conversation with a US President since 1979, when President Mohammad Khatami, who attempted to take steps to build a bridge between Iran and the rest of the world with his so-‐called “cultural exchange” campaign. vi Dr. Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian Foreign Minister, has done a great job, attending many talks and negotiating directly with the P5+1 countries, including the US, UK, France, China, Russia and Germany, and leading the Geneva negotiations personally. What exactly bothers Iran, causing it to seek talks? Sanctions obviously proved to be strong enough: as a result of those sanctions over the past seven years, Iran’s currency has been devalued, there has been a massive inflation in the domestic market and oil revenues have plummeted. Economically exhausted, Iran now realizes that it must relax its hard-‐core politics towards the West and the US if it wants relief. Iran is more serious now than it was in the talks 15 months ago. As a result, we can see that diplomatic efforts combined with as international sanctions have been effective.vii
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge On the West and US side, we can see that diplomacy is at work, too. US President Obama’s letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader represents the first communication between leaders of the two nations which have not interacted directly for more than three decades. Obama persistently exhorted the Supreme Leader to not to miss out on this historic moment.viii President Obama has clarified that, despite the fact that the US objective is “to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons,” it does not mean that the US would take military measures to do so. For the West and the US, diplomacy regarding Iran’s nuclear program is not about eliminating, but rather it is focused upon bounding. Critics argue that the talks (i.e., the interim agreement) can be used to Iran’s advantage with a narrative to claim to the rest of the world that Iran stood up for its rights. President Obama’s response to those critics is rather fascinating: he responded, ”We cannot close the door on diplomacy." He added that “Tough talk and bluster may be the easy thing to do politically, but it's not the right thing to do for our security."ix Moreover, as postulated in the introduction, the US cannot afford another military intervention after the catastrophe it has made in Afghanistan and Iraq. The US knows well that war is costly; with its current economic situation and its military already stretched thin, it cannot initiate another conflict. For decades the West and the US has had a massive interest in Middle East for its supply of oil; with Iran being the fourth largest oil exporter, the West is better off finding agreement rather than initiating offensive military actions.
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge Iran’s geopolitical situation makes it important for many reasons but one in particular is the emergence of the extremist Islamic State, about which the US, the West and Iran share interest in stopping, adding to the a high stakes hinging on the outcome of diplomacy.x Counter arguments to diplomacy: why and why not Iran should have access to atomic bomb? If diplomacy fails, then what? Iran can argue that it has the right to access atomic bombs for the following reasons: Very unstable neighbouring countries surround Iran, including Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, all of which have ongoing ethnic and political challenges. From International Relations theory comes the concept of balance of power and, from a Realist point of view, once your opponent arms itself, you’d better do so – even stronger – to defend your territory. xi More importantly, Iran sees potential threat to its security from India, Pakistan, Israel and Russia, all of which are nuclear powers – and Russia is Iran’s sole supplier of nuclear fuel. It is no wonder why Iran would question as double standards the American approach towards India, Pakistan and Israel, as compared with Iran. Above all, Iran knows full well that it is vulnerable because Israel produces some 200 undeclared nuclear warheads. Tel Aviv has frequently threatened to lunch a military strike against Iran. (The fact that the alleged purpose of such a strike is said to be to disable Iran’s nuclear potential makes this pretty much a chicken-‐and-‐egg conundrum.)xii
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge On the other side, the West and especially the US can argue the following five reasons (A)xiii and, hence, be cynical about Iran’s having access to a nuclear warhead: First, it is Iran, a country which the US lists as a sponsor of terrorism in addition to being an enemy of Israel. Joe Lieberman, a former US Senator, calls Iran “an enemy”. He asserts, “There is American blood on Iranian hands,” by which he refers to the bombing of the US embassy and the US Marines barracks in Beirut by Hezbollah-‐backed by Iranians in 1983. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who believes the “interim” agreement is a “historic mistake”, insists that Israel is committed to preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and, in diplomacy, what he actually is doing is threatening a pre-‐emptive military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities if Israel believes that Tehran becomes capable of building an atomic bomb. Second, both Republicans and Democrats argue against easing the sanctions on Iran. Lindsey Graham, a Republican Senator from North Carolina, argues that "The sanctions actually worked but this interim deal gives the Iranians $7 billion in cash and leaves in place one of the most sophisticated enrichment programs around.” What seems to be the case here is that Senators, such as Sen. Graham, are worried that Iran might be using the talks and negotiations as a cover-‐up to save time whilst advancing uranium enrichment.
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge The third argument is that, despite the fact that Iran has long been insisting on its nuclear ambition to be a peaceful one, it is gaining legitimacy for its ambition which, according to Sen. Graham, should be interpreted as “You are insisting on your right to enrich. Given your behavior, you have abandoned that right.” The fourth argument put forward against Iran is that the interim agreement gives Iran legitimacy as a key player in Middle East, as the west is worried about the Sunni-‐Shiite rift in the Muslim world. Countries such as Saudi Arabia with its Sunni population are worried that Iran’s access to nuclear armament would mean its support for Shiite-‐affiliated terrorist groups. A Saudi Arabian official reported that "Many in Saudi Arabia worry that Iran is not being sincere, and the worry during the negotiations was that any deal reached would mean Iran would widen their influence in the region – in countries like Lebanon and Bahrain – and become a bigger threat." Finally, US concern would once again be Israel. Rallying around the slogan that the enemy of Israel is the US’ enemy, several states in the US faced pressure from Jewish constituencies who want the US government to back Israel. This important because US President Obama’s diplomacy faces challenges when a Democrat such as New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, who is close to Obama, makes it clear that Democrats share concerns with Israel and see diplomacy as a useless tool. If anything at all, US politicians who disagree would say that all the talks will provide is in Iran’s favor and not the West’s and, to be specific, the US’. A Virginia Republican, Eric Cantor (who was defeated in the most recent elections but, until then, was a Republican leader in the US House of Representatives) says,
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge “Iran should have to irreversibly dismantle its nuclear stockpiles and not be allowed to continue enrichment. And I think this deal falls short on all of those fronts, and I think it bodes very, very ominously for the region, and in fact, US security."1 Conclusion Drawing a premature conclusion over a matter still ongoing is a perilous undertaking. However, one may engage in cautious prognostication. I strongly believe that diplomacy is at one of it brightest moments today with respect to this challenge, evidenced by US Secretary of State John Kerry wanting this to be his legacy. What needs to occur as a result of these ongoing talks is not regime change in Iran – whether through the support of opposition groups or through military action. The optimal approach should be to entice Iran with the prospect of integrating itself into the international community and to support its access to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) while lifting the sanctions further to show Iran that its sovereignty is being respected. xiv Granted, this sounds quite idealistic. With President Obama’s term coming to an end and not being certain what sort of politician will succeed him, we are left only with the concept which has been embodied in the statements of the US 1 Please referrer to A for citation
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge National Security Council (NSS) since 2002. NSS holds the view that “all real power and freedom of action must remain in the hands of the USA.” The US insists that it is exercising its rights under NPT, by the same token that Iran argues that it is within its rights to enrich uranium. Interestingly, both of the countries are quite religious and nationalistic; one wonders what the future holds once Obama leaves office and diplomacy loses its effectiveness in the game of power between these countries? Will it still be possible to reach an agreement between these two very opposed countries? xv One hopes that the leaders and professional diplomats on both sides have in mind the same questions, and so will endeavor to finalize and ratify an agreement before US President Obama leaves office. We will all prefer to have the issue resolved and peace assured, rather than learning the answers to the above questions, the hard way. If such can be achieved, it will be a triumphant moment for diplomacy.
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge Bibliography i Chubin, Shahram. "The Iran Primer." The Politics of Iran's Nuclear Program. UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE, n.d. Web. 25 Jan. 2015. ii Chubin, Shahram. "The Iran Primer." The Politics of Iran's Nuclear Program. UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE, n.d. Web. 25 Jan. 2015. iii Chubin, Shahram. "The Iran Primer." The Politics of Iran's Nuclear Program. UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE, n.d. Web. 25 Jan. 2015. iv Chubin, Shahram. "The Iran Primer." The Politics of Iran's Nuclear Program. UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE, n.d. Web. 25 Jan. 2015. v Rūḥānī, Ḥasan. Amnīyat-‐i Millī Va Dīplumāsī-‐i Hastahʹī. Tehran: Centre of Strategic Research, 2014. Print:50-‐53. vi Tarock, Adam. "Iran's Nuclear Programme and the West." Third World Quarterly 27.4 (2006): 647-‐48. vii Kimball, Daryl G. "FOCUS: Iran Nuclear Diplomacy: Still the Best Option." Arms Control Today 42.4 (2012): 4. JSTOR. Web. 25 Jan. 2015. viii Litwak, Robert S. "In Making a Nuclear Deal, a Winning Argument for Iran." Washington Wire. N.p., 16 Nov. 2014. Web. 26 Jan. 2015. . ix Litwak, Robert S. "In Making a Nuclear Deal, a Winning Argument for Iran." Washington Wire. N.p., 16 Nov. 2014. Web. 26 Jan. 2015. . x Rūḥānī, Ḥasan. Amnīyat-‐i Millī Va Dīplumāsī-‐i Hastahʹī. Tehran: Centre of Strategic Research, 2014. Print: 208-‐220. xi Barzegar, Kayhan. "The Paradox of Iran's Nuclear Consensus." World Policy Journal 26.3 (2009): 25. xii Barzegar, Kayhan. "The Paradox of Iran's Nuclear Consensus." World Policy Journal 26.3 (2009): 25. xiii Cohen, T. (2015). 5 reasons diverse critics oppose Iran nuclear deal -‐ CNN.com. [online] CNN. Available at: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/11/25/politics/iran-‐ deal-‐opponents-‐5-‐things/ [Accessed 26 Jan. 2015]. xiv Tarock, A. (2006). Iran's nuclear programme and the west. Third World Quarterly, 27(4), pp.645-‐664.
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Mojdeh Khast – Iran’s Nuclear Program: a Diplomatic Challenge xv Tarock, A. (2006). Iran's nuclear programme and the west. Third World Quarterly, 27(4), pp.645-‐664. Further readings: Foreignaffairs.com, (2015). Why Iran Should Get the Bomb | Foreign Affairs. [online] Available at: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/137731/kenneth-‐ n-‐waltz/why-‐iran-‐should-‐get-‐the-‐bomb [Accessed 26 Jan. 2015]. Iran's Nuclear Program. (2005). The American Journal of International Law, 99(1), p.270. Jstor.org, (2015). JSTOR: Arms Control Today, Vol. 40, No. 9 (NOVEMBER 2010), pp. 47-‐48. [online] Available at: http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/23628900?sid=21105699691293&uid =3739560&uid=2&uid=4&uid=3739256 [Accessed 26 Jan. 2015]. Jstor.org, (2015). JSTOR: Arms Control Today, Vol. 35, No. 1 (JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2005), pp. 30-‐31. [online] Available at: http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/23627408?sid=21105699691293&uid =2&uid=3739560&uid=4&uid=3739256 [Accessed 26 Jan. 2015]. Kenyon, P. (2015). [online] Available at: http://The Key Sticking Points In The Iranian Nuclear Talks [Accessed 26 Jan. 2015].
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